216
FXUS64 KFWD 091759
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
- BUMPED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TO 2
TO 5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDED OR CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX TO
THE RED RIVER OVER TOWARD PARIS.
- IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT WE'LL SEE BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-20. OUR GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
- SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING BUT
WILL LIKELY PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 405 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR POWERFUL UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD WHILE
AN UPSTREAM KICKER SHORTWAVE DIGS SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. A NOTABLE UPTICK IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON
WATER VAPOR IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
BEGINNING TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A
SHARP INCREASE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING. ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE
STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AS INDICATED BY A 6Z ACARS SOUNDING
FROM DALLAS EARLIER, HOWEVER, CLOUD HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER
SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS IN PROGRESS. AS
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING, AN ABRUPT LOWERING OF CLOUD HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES.
WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN APPRECIABLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AND WE'RE NOW IN THE MID 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS, HOWEVER
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 20S ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WET
BULB COOLING POTENTIAL ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THIS IS ALREADY
OCCURRING TO OUR WEST WHERE MANY STATIONS HAVE COOLED 3-5 DEGREES
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR TYPE OF
RESPONSE IN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OF GREATER
IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE ABOVE THE SURFACE, AS THAT
WILL COMPLETELY DICTATE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE REGION. A
CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE ACARS SOUNDING FROM DALLAS SHOWED A
NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB
WITH ONLY A SMALL WARM NOSE AT 34 DEGREES AROUND 900 MB. WITH
PLENTY OF WET BULB COOLING POTENTIAL, THIS SOUNDING WOULD LIKELY
BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. COMPUTER
MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLES WET BULB COOLING WELL AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD START
TO SEE PRECIPITATION REACH THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A COMBINATION OF RAIN, SLEET, AND
PERHAPS SOME SNOW. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN, BUT SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. BY MID MORNING, STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL BE DYNAMICALLY COOLED BY THIS LIFT WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SLEET SHOWERS, SOME HEAVY, EXTENDING FROM
OUR SOUTHWEST INTO THE METROPLEX. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF I-20 AND ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES, WITH A MOSTLY COLD RAIN
FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
EVENT, ALTHOUGH SOME COLD SPOTS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ICING AND
THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET.
THROUGH MIDDAY, THE EVENT MAY BE "SO FAR UNIMPRESSIVE" WITH A
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SLEET MIX, BUT THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD REALLY BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A BAND
OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL ORIENT ITSELF JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN LINE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
DYNAMIC COOLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE METROPLEX
NORTH TO THE RED RIVER. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDED PRECIPITATION
ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE
FOR ACTUAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CONVECTIVE SLEET OR SNOW SHOWERS. ALL OF THIS
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (GENERALLY
FROM 5 PM THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM) AND IN A LOCATION FROM THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX TO THE RED RIVER AND OVER TOWARD
PARIS. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-20
LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES CONTINUES TO BE MOST
LIKELY FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHWARD INTO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENT. SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOTALS...BETWEEN 8 AND
10 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY BANDS THAT CAN DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO A TRANSITION TO
SNOW. FARTHER SOUTH, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 1
INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF I-20 WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
CONCERNING ICE ACCUMULATIONS...THIS EVENT REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN EVENT WITH
MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES,
A WARM NOSE ALOFT, AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL WOULD BE GREATEST
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING JUST AREN'T COLD ENOUGH FOR
MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON SURFACE ROADS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UP TO 1/10" OF ICE THROUGH THIS EVENT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD, HOWEVER WITH THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WE COULD
STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING. ALL OF THIS WILL END BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH ANY ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE
GROUND. ANY MELTING WILL LIKELY RE-FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 405 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER
GENERALLY QUIET.
DUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
WINTER PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX, WITH
PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING. BURSTS OF HEAVIER
SLEET AND SNOW HAVE OCCURRED PERIODICALLY SO FAR WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING FROM 3-4SM DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 - 1 1/2 SM.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX MOVING
THROUGH BEFORE A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR
03-04Z. CIGS HAVE ALSO BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A BIT WITH KAFW AND
KFTW DEALING WITH IFR CIGS AS WELL AS IFR VIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS CLOSELY AS POSSIBLE.
THE MIDDAY TAF TRENDS WITH IFF/LIFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ANY TRANSITION TO RAIN NOW AS IT IS COLDER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE METROPLEX AND GUIDANCE IS STILL WARMER/HASN'T CAUGHT UP. HAVE
STILL MAINTAINED A PLRA PERIOD, NOW BEGINNING AT 22Z, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KAFW AND KFTW WHICH ARE EVEN LESS LIKELY TO SEE RAIN
MIX IN, SO MAINTAINING A SLEET/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN SITES.
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 12/13Z WHEN
SNOW TAPERS OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR. WILL LIKELY SEE
AN IMPROVEMENT FOR DFW TAF SITES TO MVFR SOMETIME NEAR 18Z, BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS AS WELL AS IT MAY BE LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR WACO, RAIN HAS YET TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX, SO
THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED TO 21Z. STILL EXPECTING A
RAIN/SLEET MIX WITH A BRIEF PERIOD (01-03Z) OF LIKELY JUST RAIN,
BEFORE A SHIFT TO RAIN/SNOW. CIGS WILL REMAIN LIFR/IFR FROM ~01Z
ONWARD.
GORDON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 36 29 38 22 46 / 100 100 0 0 0
WACO 36 31 39 22 49 / 100 100 0 0 0
PARIS 34 28 36 16 38 / 100 100 20 0 0
DENTON 34 27 37 17 44 / 100 100 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 34 29 37 19 43 / 100 100 5 0 0
DALLAS 36 30 38 22 44 / 100 100 0 0 0
TERRELL 36 30 38 20 45 / 100 100 5 0 0
CORSICANA 38 31 39 25 50 / 100 100 0 0 0
TEMPLE 37 31 41 22 53 / 100 100 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 34 28 38 19 51 / 100 90 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-117>123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ115-116-
129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
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