741
FXUS64 KFWD 091952
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
152 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
- SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE INCREASED AGAIN. EVENT TOTALS WILL BE
BETWEEN 2" AND 6" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDED OR CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 8". THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX TO THE
RED RIVER OVER TOWARD PARIS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUES TO
DECREASE, BUT BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS THIS
MORNING. IMPACTS WILL PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WAS
BEEN THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SLEET. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2" TO
5" ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE NORTH-SOUTH
GRADIENT IN SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION IS RATHER SHARP, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION NEAR/ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN A SLEET/SNOW MIX AND RAIN/SLEET MIX
IS GRADUALLY CREEPING NORTHWARD AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO
AROUND 32-33 DEGREES. RAIN/SLEET WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL
AGAIN. AS TEMPERATURES SEE SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SOME AREAS MAY SEE INTERMITTENT TRANSITIONS TO COLD
RAIN (NO SLEET). SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER, BUT AN INTERMITTENT
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS, RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN CENTRAL
TEXAS MAY SEE AN INTERMITTENT RAIN/SLEET MIX WHERE SHOWERS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO DECREASE, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
MANY LOCATIONS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN, AND
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ELSEWHERE ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW OR
SLEET. HOWEVER, IF ICE IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST (NEAR/SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35)
AND/OR NORTHEAST (NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF US-75). ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IF THIS OCCURS, AND
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ELEVATED SURFACES AND TREES.
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A FULL TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS. WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDING TO
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-30 AND EAST OF US-287. AN
ADDITIONAL 2" TO 5" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. AVERAGE EVENT
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2" TO 6" NORTH
OF I-20, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE METROPLEX TO THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD SEE EVENT SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND 8".
TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TEXAS
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHICH
WILL ALLOW ANY LIQUID ON ROADWAYS TO FREEZE, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS MAY
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, BUT WE STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON ANY ELEVATED ROADWAYS IN THESE AREAS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, BUT SOME
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE SNOW IN NORTH TEXAS, WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, BUT WE
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL AND IN THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
MELT SNOW/ICE ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO IMPROVE, SO THESE AREAS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR LONGER TRAVEL IMPACTS.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 405 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER
GENERALLY QUIET.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1159 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
WINTER PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE DFW METROPLEX, WITH
PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING. BURSTS OF HEAVIER
SLEET AND SNOW HAVE OCCURRED PERIODICALLY SO FAR WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING FROM 3-4SM DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 - 1 1/2 SM.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX MOVING
THROUGH BEFORE A LONGER DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR
03-04Z. CIGS HAVE ALSO BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A BIT WITH KAFW AND
KFTW DEALING WITH IFR CIGS AS WELL AS IFR VIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS CLOSELY AS POSSIBLE.
THE MIDDAY TAF TRENDS WITH IFF/LIFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN
ANY TRANSITION TO RAIN NOW AS IT IS COLDER THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE METROPLEX AND GUIDANCE IS STILL WARMER/HASN'T CAUGHT UP. HAVE
STILL MAINTAINED A PLRA PERIOD, NOW BEGINNING AT 22Z, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KAFW AND KFTW WHICH ARE EVEN LESS LIKELY TOSPRING
SEE RAIN MIX IN, SO MAINTAINING A SLEET/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN
SITES. DETERIORATED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 12/13Z
WHEN SNOW TAPERS OFF AND CIGS IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR. WILL
LIKELY SEE AN IMPROVEMENT FOR DFW TAF SITES TO MVFR SOMETIME NEAR
18Z, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THIS AS WELL AS IT MAY BE
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR WACO, RAIN HAS YET TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX, SO
THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIP HAS BEEN DELAYED TO 21Z. STILL EXPECTING A
RAIN/SLEET MIX WITH A BRIEF PERIOD (01-03Z) OF LIKELY JUST RAIN,
BEFORE A SHIFT TO RAIN/SNOW. CIGS WILL REMAIN LIFR/IFR FROM ~01Z
ONWARD.
GORDON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 30 37 22 46 32 / 100 5 0 0 0
WACO 33 39 22 49 33 / 100 0 0 0 0
PARIS 30 35 16 38 25 / 100 30 0 0 0
DENTON 28 35 17 44 27 / 100 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 29 35 19 43 29 / 100 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 32 37 22 44 32 / 100 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 37 20 45 31 / 100 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 33 39 25 50 34 / 100 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 31 39 22 53 32 / 100 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 28 36 19 51 28 / 100 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-117>123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ115-116-
129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
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