166
FXUS64 KFWD 100030
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
- SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE SLIGHTLY TWEAKED FROM THE AFTERNOON UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. GIVEN SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS
REPORTED SO FAR TODAY, EVENT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 8+ INCHES NEAR THE RED RIVER, 2 TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE METROPLEX, A TRACE TO 2
INCHES BETWEEN US 84 AND I-20, AND LITTLE OR NONE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
- ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL SLEET IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AND SNOW, WITH
SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINATE TYPE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA AND SNOW INCREASES IN
INTENSITY. TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING, BUT ANY
REMAINING WATER ON ROADS WILL REFREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT CAUSING ICY
CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD DRASTICALLY
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS THIS EVENING SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME
SLEET AND SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
TRANSITION FROM THE WINTRY MIX EARLIER TODAY TO RAIN IS EXPLAINED
BY THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING, WHICH SHOWS A 1.8C WARM NOSE CENTERED
AROUND 800MB WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 5K FT DEEP LAYER OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR FROM 3K TO 8K FT. HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE WARM NOSE
AND ABOVE-FREEZING LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO COOL WITH TIME ALLOWING A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN/SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT NORTH OF THE US 84 CORRIDOR, WITH
LOWEST AMOUNTS SOUTH AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HOWEVER, THESE AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION
OCCURS AND THE DURATION OF SNOWFALL, SINCE SNOW/RAIN WILL END
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. I DID ADD MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP AS THE LOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY SATURATED. OVERALL, ONLY MADE ONLY SLIGHT
UPDATES TO AFTERNOON FORECAST, MAINLY FOR SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, AND OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 300 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR SOME AREAS, AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ANY LIQUID ON ROADWAYS, AND BLACK ICE
MAY BECOME A CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY, OUTDOOR/EXPOSED PIPES NEED TO
BE PROTECTED SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANY AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S
ON SATURDAY WITH UNFILTERED SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP MELT AND EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE LINGERING
SNOW/ICE RATHER QUICKLY. IF ANY WATER/SNOW IS LEFT ON THE GROUND
SATURDAY EVENING, IT COULD REFREEZE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ANY SHELTERED AREAS
WHERE MELTING AND EVAPORATION WON'T BE AS EFFICIENT ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NEAR
ZERO.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT WITH
CURRENT RA TRANSITIONING TO SN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SN COULD BE
MODERATE AT TIMES WITH 1/2SM VIS BEFORE ENDING AROUND 09-10Z.
SOME FZDZ ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM 09-10Z THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW
MORNING AS LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY SATURATED, SO ADDED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS TO METROPLEX AIRPORTS. CIGS/VIS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MVFR BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHAMBURGER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 30 37 22 46 31 / 100 10 0 0 0
WACO 33 39 24 50 33 / 100 0 0 0 0
PARIS 30 35 17 39 26 / 100 30 0 0 0
DENTON 28 35 17 43 27 / 100 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 29 35 19 42 29 / 100 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 32 37 22 44 32 / 100 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 37 21 46 31 / 100 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 33 39 26 51 34 / 100 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 31 39 24 54 32 / 100 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 28 36 20 49 29 / 100 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-117>123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ115-116-
129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
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