691
FXUS64 KFWD 100556
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE TRIMMED/CANCELLED CLOSER TO MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
- IMPACTS TO ROADS MAY WORSEN SOME, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS
AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. ANY RESIDUAL WATER
ON THE ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FREEZE INTO ICE AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. BLACK ICE MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND WE COULD SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS UNTIL THIS
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL
RESULT IN TOP DOWN DRYING AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAY BE
VOID OF MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT WHILE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE CLOSER TO MORNING.
WHILE WE'RE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO, ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
ICING ON UNTREATED ROADS. THIS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND WE'VE UNDERCUT THE BROADER GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH A REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S. ANY LINGERING WATER WILL FREEZE INTO ICE AND WE COULD STILL
CONTEND WITH SOME BLACK ICE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG DURING THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY
WHERE ANY SNOWPACK REMAINS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 300 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR SOME AREAS, AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE ANY LIQUID ON ROADWAYS, AND BLACK ICE
MAY BECOME A CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY, OUTDOOR/EXPOSED PIPES NEED TO
BE PROTECTED SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANY AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S
ON SATURDAY WITH UNFILTERED SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP MELT AND EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE LINGERING
SNOW/ICE RATHER QUICKLY. IF ANY WATER/SNOW IS LEFT ON THE GROUND
SATURDAY EVENING, IT COULD REFREEZE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ANY SHELTERED AREAS
WHERE MELTING AND EVAPORATION WON'T BE AS EFFICIENT ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING NEAR
ZERO.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/6Z TAFS/
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND WE'LL
GENERALLY PREVAIL IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH -SN THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT, BECOMING MVFR BY MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR FG/BR TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE'LL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO
ASSESS.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 31 38 23 46 31 / 100 5 0 0 0
WACO 33 40 24 52 33 / 100 5 0 0 0
PARIS 30 37 16 39 26 / 100 50 0 0 0
DENTON 30 37 17 44 27 / 100 5 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 29 37 18 43 29 / 100 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 30 38 21 45 32 / 100 5 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 38 21 46 31 / 100 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 33 40 25 52 34 / 100 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 33 42 23 54 32 / 100 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 30 38 18 50 29 / 100 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-117>123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ115-116-
129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page