782
FXUS64 KFWD 100833
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
233 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE TRIMMED/CANCELLED CLOSER TO MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
- ROAD IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS. ANY RESIDUAL WATER ON
THE ROADS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FREEZE INTO ICE AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. BLACK ICE MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1156 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMIC
FORCING CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND WE COULD SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BANDS UNTIL THIS
TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL
RESULT IN TOP DOWN DRYING AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE MAY BE
VOID OF MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT WHILE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE CLOSER TO MORNING.
WHILE WE'RE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO, ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
ICING ON UNTREATED ROADS. THIS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AND WE'VE UNDERCUT THE BROADER GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH A REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S. ANY LINGERING WATER WILL FREEZE INTO ICE AND WE COULD STILL
CONTEND WITH SOME BLACK ICE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING FOG DURING THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY
WHERE ANY SNOWPACK REMAINS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVING
ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A STEADY SLOW WARMUP INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 20S WARMING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL NIGHTS OF SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1156 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025/
/6Z TAFS/
PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND WE'LL
GENERALLY PREVAIL IFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH -SN THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR -FZDZ LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT, BECOMING MVFR BY MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR FG/BR TO DEVELOP
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE'LL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO
ASSESS.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 35 23 46 32 45 / 5 0 0 0 0
WACO 38 24 52 33 51 / 5 0 0 0 0
PARIS 34 16 39 27 42 / 50 0 0 0 0
DENTON 35 17 44 27 44 / 5 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 35 18 43 29 43 / 20 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 36 21 45 32 45 / 5 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 36 21 46 31 45 / 20 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 37 25 52 35 51 / 10 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 38 23 54 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 36 18 50 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
117>123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ115-116-
129>135-141>148-156-157-159-161.
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