716
FXUS64 KFWD 110622
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING IN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO REFREEZING OF SLUSH INTO BLACK ICE
ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG. A LIGHT COATING OF
ICE WILL MAKE FOR SLICK ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES, BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LEADING TO REFREEZING OF
WATER/SLUSH ON ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
THAT DID NOT SEE FULL MELTING OF SLEET/SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY TANKING TO MATCH SURFACE DEWPOINTS, AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY COVERAGE OF FREEZING
FOG IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH RESIDUAL SNOWPACK, AND THEREFORE WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ROUGHLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES. A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHEASTWARD,
WHERE THE PRESENCE OF MIST/FOG COULD DEPOSIT ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ICING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
BY MID/LATE MORNING, WINDS WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RAPID MELTING OF ANY RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
SOME OF OUR TEXOMA COUNTIES MAY STILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER
40S HOWEVER, AS MOST OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON
MELTING/EVAPORATION PHASE CHANGES RATHER THAN HEATING THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER. A RETURN TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO
MOISTURE LEFT ON ROADWAYS TO RESULT IN RENEWED BLACK ICE CONCERNS
BY THAT TIME. THERE ARE SOME SLIM PROBABILITIES FOR PATCHY FOG IN
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO BE
FORMALLY INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING, REINFORCING THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL
OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 200 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025/
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BUT WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE
40S AND LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A EVEN SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE 50S WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
60S WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST.
79
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
SKIES ARE CLEAR AS OF 06Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING.
PATCHY FOG/MIST IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS WHERE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK EXISTS, AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VALUES THROUGH THE
MORNING AT D10 AIRPORTS. LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF MIST/FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DENSE WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S. ANY FOG WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 24 49 32 45 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 25 55 33 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 19 43 28 42 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 16 48 28 44 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 17 47 29 43 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 23 49 32 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 22 51 32 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 26 55 35 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 25 58 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 21 54 29 49 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-118>123.
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