178
FXUS64 KFWD 110924
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
IN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO REFREEZING OF SLUSH INTO BLACK ICE ALONG
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
WILL MAKE FOR SLICK ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1222 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LEADING TO REFREEZING OF
WATER/SLUSH ON ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
THAT DID NOT SEE FULL MELTING OF SLEET/SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY TANKING TO MATCH SURFACE DEWPOINTS, AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY COVERAGE OF FREEZING
FOG IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH RESIDUAL SNOWPACK, AND THEREFORE WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ROUGHLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES. A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHEASTWARD,
WHERE THE PRESENCE OF MIST/FOG COULD DEPOSIT ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ICING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
BY MID/LATE MORNING, WINDS WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RAPID MELTING OF ANY RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
SOME OF OUR TEXOMA COUNTIES MAY STILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER
40S HOWEVER, AS MOST OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON
MELTING/EVAPORATION PHASE CHANGES RATHER THAN HEATING THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER. A RETURN TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO
MOISTURE LEFT ON ROADWAYS TO RESULT IN RENEWED BLACK ICE CONCERNS
BY THAT TIME. THERE ARE SOME SLIM PROBABILITIES FOR PATCHY FOG IN
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO BE
FORMALLY INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING, REINFORCING THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL
OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST LATE
MONDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
20S. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING (10-20% CHANCE). WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND NO DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS CONFIGURATION, THE
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTH FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. BEYOND THIS, SOME EXTENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1222 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
SKIES ARE CLEAR AS OF 06Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING.
PATCHY FOG/MIST IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS WHERE RESIDUAL SNOWPACK EXISTS, AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR VALUES THROUGH THE
MORNING AT D10 AIRPORTS. LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
SURFACES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF MIST/FOG BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DENSE WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 20S. ANY FOG WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 49 32 45 29 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 55 33 50 31 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 43 28 42 24 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 48 28 44 24 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 47 29 43 25 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 49 32 46 29 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 51 32 47 28 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 55 35 52 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 58 32 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 54 29 49 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-118>123.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page