181
FXUS64 KFWD 111124
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
IN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO REFREEZING OF SLUSH INTO BLACK ICE ALONG
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE
WILL MAKE FOR SLICK ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
BEFORE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY MIDDAY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
PATCHY FREEZING FOG HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER MODEST
THUS FAR. WE'LL ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 9 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LOCALIZED SHALLOW FOG WHICH WOULD
BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE TEXOMA REGION WHICH HAS A MORE
ROBUST SNOWPACK. BLACK ICE DUE TO REFREEZING OF SLUSH/WATER ON
ROADWAYS REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN NORTH TEXAS BEING THE MOST PROBLEMATIC.
A RATHER QUICK WARMUP AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
IMPROVEMENT OF ROAD CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING, AND MOST AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
VERY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE LEADING TO REFREEZING OF
WATER/SLUSH ON ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
THAT DID NOT SEE FULL MELTING OF SLEET/SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY TANKING TO MATCH SURFACE DEWPOINTS, AND
THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST PATCHY COVERAGE OF FREEZING
FOG IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE MOST PREVALENT
IN AREAS WITH RESIDUAL SNOWPACK, AND THEREFORE WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ROUGHLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES. A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHEASTWARD,
WHERE THE PRESENCE OF MIST/FOG COULD DEPOSIT ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ICING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
BY MID/LATE MORNING, WINDS WILL HAVE RETURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. WARM ADVECTION AND INSOLATION WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RAPID MELTING OF ANY RESIDUAL SNOWPACK.
SOME OF OUR TEXOMA COUNTIES MAY STILL ONLY REACH THE MID/UPPER
40S HOWEVER, AS MOST OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON
MELTING/EVAPORATION PHASE CHANGES RATHER THAN HEATING THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER. A RETURN TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO
MOISTURE LEFT ON ROADWAYS TO RESULT IN RENEWED BLACK ICE CONCERNS
BY THAT TIME. THERE ARE SOME SLIM PROBABILITIES FOR PATCHY FOG IN
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO BE
FORMALLY INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING, REINFORCING THE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL
OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 324 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST LATE
MONDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
20S. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING (10-20% CHANCE). WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND NO DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS CONFIGURATION, THE
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTH FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. BEYOND THIS, SOME EXTENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO MIST/FOG HAVE BEEN MODEST AND SHORT-
LIVED OVERNIGHT, BUT BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATER THIS MORNING
WITH SOME DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING, AND ITS NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THE EXTENDED DFW TAF WITH A FROPA TIMING AROUND 14Z.
SOME CLOUD COVER AT 2-4 KFT COULD FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CATEGORY REDUCTIONS IS PRESENTLY TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY CIGS IN THE TAF.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 33 47 29 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 54 34 51 31 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 45 30 43 24 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 50 28 45 24 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 30 44 25 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 34 48 29 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 33 46 28 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 35 51 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 55 32 54 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 54 30 50 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-118>123.
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