956
FXUS64 KFWD 111944
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THIS AFTERNOON BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1059 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUR BOUT WITH WINTER WEATHER IS OVER FOR NOW WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS OF LATE THIS
MORNING. FULL SUN AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD MAKE QUICK WORK OF THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE MELTING WILL SLOW WARMING SOME, KEEPING
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ELSEWHERE,
WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER OVERALL WITH LOWS STAYING IN
THE 30S FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY. THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE FROPA BEFORE SUNRISE WILL LIKELY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S.
INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY AND SOME POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE
40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COOLER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT NO PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT.
79
LONG TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. A GRADUAL WARM-UP
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION BEYOND DAY 8 AND 9 IN THE FORECAST.
NOTHING TO GET TOO CONCERNED ABOUT YET, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE ENTER THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
LANGFELD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST LATE
MONDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
20S. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING (10-20% CHANCE). WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND NO DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS CONFIGURATION, THE
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTH FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. BEYOND THIS, SOME EXTENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1059 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY AND A SOUTH
WIND BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES JUST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY, BRINGING A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MVFR STRATUS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH WACO AROUND 15Z.
ALL LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 33 49 29 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 34 52 32 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 30 45 25 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 29 48 24 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 31 47 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 34 49 30 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 33 49 28 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 36 54 33 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 32 56 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 31 52 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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