106
FXUS64 KFWD 120012
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A COOL NIGHT LIES AHEAD FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY MAKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT, AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO OK. IN DOING SO, IT WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OUR ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE TOO DRY TO PRECIPITATE; HOWEVER, A LOW CLOUD DECK WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE RED RIVER, AROUND 50 DEG ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
LOWER/MID 50S IN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY SUB-FREEZING. AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 144 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
UPDATE:
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. A GRADUAL WARM-UP
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION BEYOND DAY 8 AND 9 IN THE FORECAST.
NOTHING TO GET TOO CONCERNED ABOUT YET, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE ENTER THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
LANGFELD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST LATE
MONDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
20S. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING (10-20% CHANCE). WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND NO DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS CONFIGURATION, THE
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTH FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. BEYOND THIS, SOME EXTENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-13 KNOTS ARE ONGOING AT THIS TIME WITH
CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION, REACHING ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES AROUND
15Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10-14 KNOTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A PERIOD OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL DALLAS/
FORT WORTH METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 18Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WILL REMAIN SKC WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING.
HERNANDEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 34 50 29 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 34 53 32 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 31 46 25 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 30 49 25 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 32 48 27 44 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 34 50 29 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 33 49 29 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 36 53 32 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 32 55 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 32 53 27 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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