466
FXUS64 KFWD 120616
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1216 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT LATER TODAY. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL, IT WILL COME THOUGH DRY AND WILL AT MOST BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS. MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS. MOST AREAS WILL
REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 144 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025/
UPDATE:
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. A GRADUAL WARM-UP
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S
MONDAY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION BEYOND DAY 8 AND 9 IN THE FORECAST.
NOTHING TO GET TOO CONCERNED ABOUT YET, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE ENTER THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
LANGFELD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL START OFF WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY, KEEPING THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST LATE
MONDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
20S. A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER TEENS BY TUESDAY MORNING (10-20% CHANCE). WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND NO DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS CONFIGURATION, THE
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTH FLOW.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE. BEYOND THIS, SOME EXTENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 14-15Z. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT, WHILE PATCHY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MATERIALIZES LATER
THIS MORNING. BRIEF CIGS NEAR 2 KFT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWN WITH
A TEMPO GROUP. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 34 50 31 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 34 55 31 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 32 47 28 43 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 32 50 28 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 34 49 27 45 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 36 51 30 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 34 51 30 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 35 53 32 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 34 54 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 34 53 27 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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