330
FXUS64 KFWD 120930
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1216 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025/
/THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT LATER TODAY. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL, IT WILL COME THOUGH DRY AND WILL AT MOST BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS. MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS. MOST AREAS WILL
REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE RETURN OF THE WARM/HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING THE
LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. BEYOND THIS, MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION OR NOT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1216 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AROUND 14-15Z. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT, WHILE PATCHY POST-FRONTAL STRATUS MATERIALIZES LATER
THIS MORNING. BRIEF CIGS NEAR 2 KFT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY BEEN SHOWN WITH
A TEMPO GROUP. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 31 47 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 55 31 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 47 28 43 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 50 28 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 49 27 45 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 30 48 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 51 30 48 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 32 51 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 54 32 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 27 48 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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