164
FXUS64 KFWD 121127
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY MILD IN THE PRESENCE
OF A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZE, AND MOST AREAS ARE BEGINNING THE DAY
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. OUR WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTH TEXAS
AS OF 5 AM, AND WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHEAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME. POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT LATER TODAY. WITH MEAGER MOISTURE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE
FRONT'S ARRIVAL, IT WILL COME THOUGH DRY AND WILL AT MOST BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS. MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION WILL OFFSET DAYTIME WARMING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS. MOST AREAS WILL
REACH THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE RETURN OF THE WARM/HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING THE
LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. BEYOND THIS, MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION OR NOT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER WESTERLY AT ALL TAF SITES AS OF 1130Z
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 14-15Z, NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15-20 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGHER DAYTIME GUSTS. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS HAS CONSISTENTLY DECLINED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL AND GUIDANCE TRENDS OVERNIGHT, AND NO CIGS
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AT SPEEDS NEAR 10 KTS.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 31 46 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 53 32 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 47 29 43 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 49 29 44 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 27 44 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 32 48 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 51 31 46 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 33 49 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 56 33 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 28 48 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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