324
FXUS64 KFWD 121638
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCES THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. FULL SUN
WILL OFFSET WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FOR MOST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ABOUT
THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES WHERE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S WILL
BE MORE COMMON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
CHILLY START TO THE WORK WEEK IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY. THE WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGERING COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
79
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 330 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025/
/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL
MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S. AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE RETURN OF THE WARM/HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S BY FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING THE
LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. BEYOND THIS, MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION OR NOT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT IT'S WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 7 AND 14 KNOTS.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 31 46 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 53 32 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 47 29 43 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 49 29 44 25 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 27 44 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 32 48 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 51 31 46 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 33 49 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 56 33 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 28 48 26 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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