521
FXUS64 KFWD 130924
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1213 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK, WHILE
POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILS ALOFT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER FOR US LOCALLY WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. A SMALL INCREASE IN MID CLOUD COVER
WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, BUT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE REMAINS
SCOURED TO THE GULF. THIS WILL HOWEVER ACT TO TURN OUR LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF
NORTH WINDS TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, GIVEN
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS WELL. A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE THURDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THOSE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THOSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FROM THERE, EXPECT BIG CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS IS STILL IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE'RE STILL 7-DAYS AWAY
AND THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DISCREPANCY BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THEY ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, BUT FOR NOW, PREPARE FOR THE RETURN OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1213 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD COVER NEAR
8-10 KFT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND THE VERY END OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 30 53 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 29 54 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 5
PARIS 46 26 48 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 48 26 52 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 28 52 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 50 31 54 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 29 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 52 32 55 38 56 / 0 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 53 29 56 38 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 51 27 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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