809
FXUS64 KFWD 131128
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
528 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE NECESSARY WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE
OTHER THAN INCORPORATING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE NEAR-
TERM. TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK, WHILE
POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILS ALOFT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER FOR US LOCALLY WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. A SMALL INCREASE IN MID CLOUD COVER
WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, BUT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE REMAINS
SCOURED TO THE GULF. THIS WILL HOWEVER ACT TO TURN OUR LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF
NORTH WINDS TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 324 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, GIVEN
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS WELL. A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THOSE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THOSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FROM THERE, EXPECT BIG CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS IS STILL IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE'RE STILL 7-DAYS AWAY
AND THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DISCREPANCY BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THEY ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, BUT FOR NOW, PREPARE FOR THE RETURN OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUD COVER NEAR 8-10 KFT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS
RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 32 53 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 30 54 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 5
PARIS 46 28 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 48 30 52 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 29 52 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 50 33 54 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 31 54 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 52 32 55 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 53 31 56 38 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 51 29 56 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page