809
FXUS64 KFWD 131655
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1055 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OUTSIDE OF SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. A
NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH BUT
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH WANING COLD AIR
ADVECTION, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHICH MAY HINDER WARMING A
BIT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S, EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
79
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 324 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD FEATURES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, GIVEN
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS WELL. A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN
FRIDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THOSE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THOSE DAYTIME
HIGHS TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. FROM THERE, EXPECT BIG CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS IS STILL IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE'RE STILL 7-DAYS AWAY
AND THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DISCREPANCY BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THEY ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, BUT FOR NOW, PREPARE FOR THE RETURN OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FEW TO SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
A NORTH WIND BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AT SPEEDS
BELOW 6 KNOTS.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 32 53 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 30 54 38 52 / 0 0 0 0 5
PARIS 46 28 48 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 48 30 52 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 48 29 52 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 50 33 54 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 31 54 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 52 32 55 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 53 31 56 38 54 / 0 0 0 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 51 29 56 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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