984
FXUS64 KFWD 132020
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 PM CST MON JAN 13 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1055 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OUTSIDE OF SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE, RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. A
NORTH WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH BUT
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY WITH WANING COLD AIR
ADVECTION, BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHICH MAY HINDER WARMING A
BIT. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S, EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
79
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 70S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.
ON FRIDAY, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT. INCREASING WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH
COLDER, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT
THAT THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFIC FORECAST
TEMPERATURES, WE COULD REASONABLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S OR 30S.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STILL VERY SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE REGION DRY OR INTRODUCING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE WETTER MEMBERS. THEREFORE, IT REMAINS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF, WHEN, OR WHERE WE COULD SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. IT'S BEST TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THESE DETAILS EVENTUALLY COME
TO LIGHT.
BARNES
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1055 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FEW TO SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
A NORTH WIND BETWEEN 6 AND 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AT SPEEDS
BELOW 6 KNOTS.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 31 53 34 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO 30 55 38 52 37 / 0 0 0 5 5
PARIS 27 50 28 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 27 52 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 28 52 30 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 32 54 34 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL 29 54 33 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA 32 56 38 55 37 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE 29 56 38 54 37 / 0 0 5 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 27 56 31 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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