814
FXUS64 KFWD 140605
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1205 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY, WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE ALLOWS OUR EXISTING AIRMASS TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AREA-WIDE.
POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRIEFLY DRAW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, PERHAPS EVEN
CULMINATING IN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF A TEMPLE TO HEARNE LINE
TOMORROW MORNING. POPS WILL BE LESS THAN 20% THOUGH, AND MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
DEVOID OF NOTEWORTHY THERMODYNAMIC CONTRAST, AND ITS PASSAGE WILL
LARGELY GO UNNOTICED ASIDE FROM A RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 MPH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 220 PM CST MON JAN 13 2025/
/TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH INTO THE LOW 70S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.
ON FRIDAY, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT. INCREASING WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE EARLY THIS WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH
COLDER, AND THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT
THAT THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE SPECIFIC FORECAST
TEMPERATURES, WE COULD REASONABLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S OR 30S.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STILL VERY SPLIT BETWEEN KEEPING THE REGION DRY OR INTRODUCING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN BOTH TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE WETTER MEMBERS. THEREFORE, IT REMAINS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF, WHEN, OR WHERE WE COULD SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. IT'S BEST TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THESE DETAILS EVENTUALLY COME
TO LIGHT.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL GIVE WAY TO SE WINDS AT 4-8 KTS BY MID MORNING. SCT MID
CLOUDS AT 9-10 KFT WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
CIRRUS ON THE INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT, A NORTH
WIND SHIFT WILL VERY GRADUALLY OCCUR WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 5
KTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
DFW TAF.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 31 54 34 55 34 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO 30 56 37 55 37 / 0 0 0 10 10
PARIS 28 51 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 30 53 29 53 29 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY 29 53 31 53 30 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS 32 55 33 55 35 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL 32 55 33 55 33 / 0 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA 32 56 38 56 36 / 0 0 0 10 10
TEMPLE 29 57 39 55 36 / 0 0 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 25 57 32 56 30 / 0 0 0 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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