814
FXUS64 KFWD 141100
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THURSDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME TODAY, WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE ALLOWS OUR EXISTING AIRMASS TO MODIFY
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AREA-WIDE.
POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS, WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRIEFLY DRAW LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, PERHAPS EVEN
CULMINATING IN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF A TEMPLE TO HEARNE LINE
TOMORROW MORNING. POPS WILL BE LESS THAN 20% THOUGH, AND MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH AXIS
DEVOID OF NOTEWORTHY THERMODYNAMIC CONTRAST, AND ITS PASSAGE WILL
LARGELY GO UNNOTICED ASIDE FROM A RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 5-10 MPH HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 245 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY AT TIMES BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE,
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO IDEAL, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE (SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM NUMBERS) WAS
USED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE WARMTH WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL USHER IN THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A QUICK BATCH OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP
WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
A COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT, WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOWS
DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. PREPARATIONS FOR
EXPOSED PIPES, PETS AND VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES SHOULD BE DONE
SOMETIME THIS WEEK BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS (SPECIFICALLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE) THOUGH THE WEEK. IN EITHER CASE, THE BITTER
COLD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
A COMBINATION OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PERIODICALLY OVERSPREAD
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME, BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.
CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BY
MIDDAY WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO LIGHT NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 08Z. ADDITIONAL VFR CIGS NEAR 5-6 KFT MAY SPREAD
INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS WELL, BUT
THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF D10.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 33 56 32 60 / 0 0 5 0 0
WACO 56 36 57 33 60 / 0 0 10 5 5
PARIS 54 30 54 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 54 29 55 27 59 / 0 0 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 55 31 55 27 58 / 0 0 5 0 0
DALLAS 55 34 57 32 60 / 0 0 5 0 5
TERRELL 56 32 55 31 59 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA 56 36 57 35 60 / 0 0 10 5 5
TEMPLE 56 37 57 33 62 / 0 5 20 5 10
MINERAL WELLS 56 31 57 31 62 / 0 0 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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