718
FXUS64 KFWD 150613
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1213 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS ON
FRIDAY.
- VERY COLD, ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITHIN A SWATH OF MODEST LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. WE WILL RETAIN 10% RAIN CHANCES ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF A TEMPLE TO PALESTINE LINE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A SIZABLE TEMPERATURE DISPARITY
THIS MORNING SINCE IT IS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN NORTH
TEXAS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE OPTIMAL, TO THE
LOW/MID 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
OTHERWISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL LARGELY GO UNNOTICED ASIDE
FROM A SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH DURING THE
DAY. MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE
MODERATING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL ALREADY RETURN TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH SUNNY
SKIES, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 60S AS A RESULT.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 234 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025/
UPDATE:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT UPDATE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY
COLDER BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S/30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND DANGEROUS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IT WON'T TAKE MUCH WIND TO
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME AREAS. START
PREPARING FOR THE DANGEROUS COLD NOW!
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LEANING SLIGHTLY MORE IN FAVOR
OF A WET FORECAST THAN DRY, BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT AHEAD OF
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY MORE FAVORABLE
IN CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH MOST MEMBERS KEYING IN ON THE MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD IS JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, SO NO WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO REASSESS WITH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT DATA AS WE GET WITHIN RANGE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD TONIGHT.
BARNES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
LIGHT NORTH WINDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY AT TIMES BE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR IN PLACE,
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO IDEAL, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE (SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NBM NUMBERS) WAS
USED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THE WARMTH WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL USHER IN THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A QUICK BATCH OF RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 40S AND 50S ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DROP
WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
A COLD SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT, WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOWS
DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. PREPARATIONS FOR
EXPOSED PIPES, PETS AND VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES SHOULD BE DONE
SOMETIME THIS WEEK BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES. WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE,
BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS (SPECIFICALLY
AVAILABLE MOISTURE) THOUGH THE WEEK. IN EITHER CASE, THE BITTER
COLD WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUD DECKS AT 7 KFT AND 25
KFT CURRENTLY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS, BUT BOTH
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD LATER TODAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL CIGS
EXPECTED IN THE D10 AIRSPACE. CALM WINDS AS OF 06Z WILL BECOME
LIGHT NORTHERLY BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING AS A SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 4-8 KTS THEREAFTER
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 31 58 35 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 30 58 33 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 29 55 30 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 27 56 30 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 27 57 32 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 32 58 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 58 33 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 31 58 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 37 57 34 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
MINERAL WELLS 28 58 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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