012
FXUS64 KFWD 152341
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH TO THE
REGION. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS,
AND A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 425 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025/
/TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT THE TIME THIS AFD WAS WRITTEN SHOW A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM STEPHENVILLE, NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DFW
METROPLEX AND TOWARDS PARIS. POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. SATELLITE ALSO CURRENTLY SHOWS SOME AGITATED CUMULUS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUFFICIENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL (20 PERCENT
CHANCE) FOR A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WILL
STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH, RESULTING IN VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
TOMORROW, AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS BEHIND TODAY'S STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUNNY AND COLD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 211 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON
MONDAY AND MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY. EXCEPTION FOR TUESDAY WILL
BE ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BARRELS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE DAY. THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE WINTER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH AROUND A 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM TUESDAY'S HIGHS TO WEDNESDAY'S MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOW 20S SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S/30S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH SINGLE DIGITS/10S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 10S/20S
THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
SPENDING UP TO 65 CONTINUOUS HOURS BELOW FREEZING FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AROUND 30 HOURS BELOW
FREEZING IN THE METROPLEX, AND ABOUT 15 HOURS IN OUR SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LOOKS TO
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S.
12Z MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE
HOW MUCH PRECIP CAN OCCUR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED LAYER FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO
750 MB ON TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE
THAT ALONG WITH A +7C WARM NOSE AT 850MB. THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 AND ALONG/EAST OF HWY 287 BEFORE THE LOW
LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH TO END PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
LIMITED TIME FOR FREEZING PRECIP AND LIGHT QPF ON MODELS, ONLY A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION APPEAR
POSSIBLE. THESE LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FLASH
FREEZE OF ANY REMAINING WATER ON ROADS FROM RAINFALL EARLIER IN
THE DAY, COULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE EXPECTED STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD
HELP DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. STAY TUNED!
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
18Z. GUSTS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD MAY
OVER PERFORM (40 PERCENT CHANCE) AND BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS.
THESE GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
TO WHAT'S IN THE TAF PREVAILING GROUP. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 29 45 31 57 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO 32 47 30 59 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 28 44 28 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 28 45 28 54 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY 28 45 27 54 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALLAS 30 46 31 58 46 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL 28 45 28 56 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA 31 46 31 59 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 33 49 31 60 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 27 46 28 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page