465
FXUS64 KFWD 160634
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1234 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY
A SEASONABLY COOL BUT RATHER BENIGN PERIOD IS IN STORE TO END THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORKWEEK. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON'S COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVECT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS HOUR, WITH MOST OF THE AREA ON
TRACK TO BEGIN THE DAY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE MORNING WILL
STILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS,
BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT ESE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RESUMING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS, EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE ENTIRE CWA TO DIP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 20S TONIGHT. MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 211 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGHS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON
MONDAY AND MID 50S TO MID 60S ON TUESDAY. EXCEPTION FOR TUESDAY WILL
BE ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 40S BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BARRELS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE DAY. THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE WINTER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH AROUND A 40 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES DROP FROM TUESDAY'S HIGHS TO WEDNESDAY'S MORNING
LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOW 20S SOUTH. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 20S/30S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH SINGLE DIGITS/10S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 10S/20S
THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
SPENDING UP TO 65 CONTINUOUS HOURS BELOW FREEZING FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH AROUND 30 HOURS BELOW
FREEZING IN THE METROPLEX, AND ABOUT 15 HOURS IN OUR SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LOOKS TO
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S AND 40S.
12Z MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE RAIN POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL
PRECIP ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE
HOW MUCH PRECIP CAN OCCUR BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED LAYER FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO
750 MB ON TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE
THAT ALONG WITH A +7C WARM NOSE AT 850MB. THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY EVENING
ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 AND ALONG/EAST OF HWY 287 BEFORE THE LOW
LEVELS DRY OUT ENOUGH TO END PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
LIMITED TIME FOR FREEZING PRECIP AND LIGHT QPF ON MODELS, ONLY A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION APPEAR
POSSIBLE. THESE LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FLASH
FREEZE OF ANY REMAINING WATER ON ROADS FROM RAINFALL EARLIER IN
THE DAY, COULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE EXPECTED STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD
HELP DRY THINGS OUT QUICKLY. STAY TUNED!
SHAMBURGER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
WRAP-AROUND MVFR STRATUS AT OR ABOVE 2 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE D10 AIRPORTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE VFR RESUMES
AFTER 08-09Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15G25KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS STEADILY DECLINE TOWARDS MIDDAY.
A GRADUAL RETURN TO LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 29 45 30 57 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO 31 48 29 59 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 28 44 26 52 38 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 27 44 25 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY 27 44 26 55 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALLAS 29 46 30 57 46 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL 30 45 27 57 45 / 30 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA 30 46 30 60 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 32 49 28 62 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 27 46 27 60 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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