350
FXUS64 KFWD 161101
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE
NECESSARY WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. IT WILL BE A COLD START TO
THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BEFORE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY
A SEASONABLY COOL BUT RATHER BENIGN PERIOD IS IN STORE TO END THE
WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORKWEEK. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON'S COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO ADVECT MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS HOUR, WITH MOST OF THE AREA ON
TRACK TO BEGIN THE DAY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE MORNING WILL
STILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES MOSTLY IN THE TEENS,
BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT ESE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
RESUMING. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SPEEDS, EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE ENTIRE CWA TO DIP INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 20S TONIGHT. MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
RETURN TO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR SET TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO THE COLDEST
WEATHER OF THE SEASON ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE OFF TO A MILD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TO BEGIN THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL
UNFOLD DURING THE FOLLOWING 8-12 HOURS THOUGH, AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING BY MID-
MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
WILL RAPIDLY USHER COLD AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR, FOLLOWED BY
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A TIME WINDOW FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL COINCIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE (A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST) WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON MOST
SURFACES, WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL POSSIBLE (PARTICULARLY
ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES). AS OF RIGHT NOW, THIS POTENTIAL
APPEARS THE GREATEST WITHIN A ROUGHLY TRIANGULAR AREA BOUNDED
FROM BOWIE TO HILLSBORO TO PARIS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN WHILE COMING TO AN END PRIOR TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE MAIN TIME WINDOW OF
CONCERN IS ROUGHLY 4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FIRST PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BEGIN FALLING INTO THE 20S, THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST. ANY TRAVEL
IMPACTS THAT MATERIALIZE WOULD BE ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN FRIGID WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. AREAS ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A CISCO TO SHERMAN LINE WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO 0 WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD EASILY
REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM
0 TO 15. DECISIONS ON THESE PRODUCTS (INCLUDING A PRELIMINARY
EXTREME COLD WATCH) WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST
CYCLES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS, WHILE CENTRAL TEXAS PROBABLY MANAGES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S. EXCEPTIONAL COLD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK THOUGH, WITH A VERY GRADUAL
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
EXPECT MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PERHAPS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ROUND
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
WOULD BE CONFINED, AND TEMPERATURES WOULD PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN ONLY LIQUID RAIN. A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S
AND 50S ON SATURDAY.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS MORNING BEFORE SPEEDS
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL RETURN TO
SE WINDS WILL TRANSPIRE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE
SCATTERED CIRRUS SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 45 29 57 45 51 / 0 0 0 5 60
WACO 48 28 59 49 65 / 0 0 0 0 40
PARIS 43 26 52 38 43 / 0 0 0 10 90
DENTON 44 24 55 42 48 / 0 0 0 5 70
MCKINNEY 44 25 55 42 48 / 0 0 0 5 80
DALLAS 46 29 57 47 53 / 0 0 0 5 70
TERRELL 45 27 56 44 56 / 0 0 0 5 80
CORSICANA 47 29 59 48 61 / 0 0 0 0 60
TEMPLE 49 27 60 49 67 / 0 0 0 0 30
MINERAL WELLS 47 26 60 44 54 / 0 0 0 0 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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