836
FXUS64 KFWD 161811
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1211 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG
NORTH WINDS, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY
- THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME PATCHY ICE ON ROADS IF IT OCCURS
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRASTICALLY COLDER DAY TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY TOMORROW
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOW 60S
IN CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/
/TUESDAY ONWARD/
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR SET TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, LEADING TO THE COLDEST
WEATHER OF THE SEASON ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE OFF TO A MILD START WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TO BEGIN THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL
UNFOLD DURING THE FOLLOWING 8-12 HOURS THOUGH, AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING BY MID-
MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
WILL RAPIDLY USHER COLD AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR, FOLLOWED BY
STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE
FREEZING, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A TIME WINDOW FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL COINCIDE
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO OCCUR, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE (A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST) WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON MOST
SURFACES, WITH MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL POSSIBLE (PARTICULARLY
ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES). AS OF RIGHT NOW, THIS POTENTIAL
APPEARS THE GREATEST WITHIN A ROUGHLY TRIANGULAR AREA BOUNDED
FROM BOWIE TO HILLSBORO TO PARIS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS RAIN WHILE COMING TO AN END PRIOR TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE FREEZING MARK. THE MAIN TIME WINDOW OF
CONCERN IS ROUGHLY 4 PM TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE FIRST PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BEGIN FALLING INTO THE 20S, THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WHEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST. ANY TRAVEL
IMPACTS THAT MATERIALIZE WOULD BE ABLE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS.
SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES, THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
RESULT IN FRIGID WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. AREAS ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A CISCO TO SHERMAN LINE WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO 0 WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WOULD EASILY
REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM
0 TO 15. DECISIONS ON THESE PRODUCTS (INCLUDING A PRELIMINARY
EXTREME COLD WATCH) WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST
CYCLES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS, WHILE CENTRAL TEXAS PROBABLY MANAGES TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S. EXCEPTIONAL COLD WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK THOUGH, WITH A VERY GRADUAL
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD
EXPECT MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF LOWS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PERHAPS BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ROUND
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WOULD BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
WOULD BE CONFINED, AND TEMPERATURES WOULD PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN ONLY LIQUID RAIN. A MORE ROBUST WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S
AND 50S ON SATURDAY.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT WHILE VEERING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR/OVER 10 KNOTS.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 45 30 56 46 51 / 0 0 0 0 60
WACO 48 29 59 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 40
PARIS 43 26 52 37 43 / 0 0 0 0 90
DENTON 44 25 54 42 48 / 0 0 0 0 70
MCKINNEY 44 26 54 42 48 / 0 0 0 0 80
DALLAS 46 30 57 46 53 / 0 0 0 0 70
TERRELL 45 28 56 44 56 / 0 0 0 0 80
CORSICANA 47 30 59 47 61 / 0 0 0 0 60
TEMPLE 49 28 61 49 67 / 0 0 0 0 30
MINERAL WELLS 47 27 59 44 54 / 0 0 0 0 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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