706
FXUS64 KFWD 162106
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY BRINGING STRONG
NORTH WINDS, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY
- THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME PATCHY ICE ON ROADS IF IT OCCURS
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1211 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRASTICALLY COLDER DAY TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY TOMORROW
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE LOW 60S
IN CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN
INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD/
BY TUESDAY MORNING, AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SENDING A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONT, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN WARM AND MOIST AIR
EARLY IN THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF US-183, WHERE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED. MEANWHILE, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR AND FORCE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL OVER THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL OCCUR
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES AND LIQUID RAIN IS ABLE TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. WHILE THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE FREEZING RAIN AND
IF THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS, WE NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY
ICE WILL CAUSE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AS ROADS MAY
HAVE SLICK SPOTS AND ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME
HAZARDOUS DURING THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN, THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PARTICULARLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, TEENS, AND 20S. THANKS TO CONTINUED BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS AS THEY PLUMMET TO BETWEEN -10 AND 15
DEGREES. CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS AND STRONG CAA WILL KEEP A
GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS BELOW 32 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES PERSISTING NORTH AND WEST OF A PARIS-
CLEBURNE-GOLDTHWAITE LINE. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TEENS, AND 20S,
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND 10 DEGREES. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH OUR RURAL
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ANOTHER DAY. AN
EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO
PREPARE YOUR HOME IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BY PROTECTING SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND PREPPING OUTDOOR/INDOOR PIPES. ADDITIONALLY, CHECK
ON VULNERABLE LOVED ONES AND KEEP THOSE PETS INSIDE.
THOUGH FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH SUB-FREEZING MORNING LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 30, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK ABOVE-FREEZING
REGION-WIDE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RAIN
CHANCES IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE IS CONFINED, BUT BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE INTO UPPER 40S AND 50S BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
PRATER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1211 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT WHILE VEERING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR/OVER 10 KNOTS.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 30 56 46 52 18 / 0 0 0 70 20
WACO 29 59 48 65 22 / 0 0 0 30 20
PARIS 26 52 37 43 19 / 0 0 0 90 60
DENTON 25 54 42 48 13 / 0 0 0 70 10
MCKINNEY 26 54 42 48 17 / 0 0 0 80 20
DALLAS 30 57 46 54 20 / 0 0 0 70 20
TERRELL 28 56 44 56 21 / 0 0 0 70 40
CORSICANA 30 59 47 62 26 / 0 0 0 60 30
TEMPLE 28 61 49 68 23 / 0 0 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 27 59 44 51 13 / 0 0 0 30 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156-157-159.
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