418
FXUS64 KFWD 170551
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5
AND 10 DEGREES.
- THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME PATCHY ICE ON ROADS IF IT OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY START TO THE
MORNING, WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S. UPPER TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
BEGIN TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING, WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE
OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING STRATUS DECK, AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. POPS
WILL BE HELD TO 10% OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL MINIMIZE
THE DIURNAL CURVE, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 306 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/
/TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD/
BY TUESDAY MORNING, AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SENDING A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
FRONT, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER IN WARM AND MOIST AIR
EARLY IN THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF US-183, WHERE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED. MEANWHILE, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR AND FORCE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL OVER THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL OCCUR
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A WINDOW
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES AND LIQUID RAIN IS ABLE TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IF FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. WHILE THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL OBSERVE FREEZING RAIN AND
IF THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATIONS, WE NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY
ICE WILL CAUSE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAKE SURE TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AS ROADS MAY
HAVE SLICK SPOTS AND ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME
HAZARDOUS DURING THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN, THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY ONWARD, PARTICULARLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, TEENS, AND 20S. THANKS TO CONTINUED BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS AS THEY PLUMMET TO BETWEEN -10 AND 15
DEGREES. CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS AND STRONG CAA WILL KEEP A
GOOD PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS BELOW 32 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES PERSISTING NORTH AND WEST OF A PARIS-
CLEBURNE-GOLDTHWAITE LINE. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, TEENS, AND 20S,
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND 10 DEGREES. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH OUR RURAL
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ANOTHER DAY. AN
EXCESSIVE COLD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO
PREPARE YOUR HOME IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BY PROTECTING SENSITIVE
VEGETATION AND PREPPING OUTDOOR/INDOOR PIPES. ADDITIONALLY, CHECK
ON VULNERABLE LOVED ONES AND KEEP THOSE PETS INSIDE.
THOUGH FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH SUB-FREEZING MORNING LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO AROUND 30, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK ABOVE-FREEZING
REGION-WIDE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW RAIN
CHANCES IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE IS CONFINED, BUT BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE INTO UPPER 40S AND 50S BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
LIGHT ENE WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT 10-15 KTS AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE SCATTERED CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. BY THIS EVENING, MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BEGIN TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, INITIALLY AT VFR
HEIGHTS OF 3-4 KFT. HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT, CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR AROUND OR
AFTER 06Z. POCKETS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF, AND WORSENED VISIBILITY AND
PERHAPS LIFR CIGS FOR TUESDAY MORNING MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 28 56 46 52 18 / 0 0 10 70 20
WACO 28 57 48 65 22 / 0 0 5 30 20
PARIS 25 52 38 43 19 / 0 0 10 90 60
DENTON 27 55 44 48 13 / 0 0 10 70 10
MCKINNEY 25 54 42 48 17 / 0 0 10 80 20
DALLAS 30 56 46 54 20 / 0 0 10 70 20
TERRELL 27 55 43 56 21 / 0 0 10 70 40
CORSICANA 28 57 46 62 26 / 0 0 10 60 30
TEMPLE 28 59 49 68 23 / 0 0 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 27 58 44 51 13 / 0 0 5 30 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156-157-159.
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