748
FXUS64 KFWD 171101
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -8
AND 10 DEGREES.
- THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME PATCHY ICE ON ROADS IF IT OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
MOST OF THE AREA IS SET TO BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 20S
FOLLOWING A CRISP NIGHT OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. AFTER A
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG/MIST AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING HEADING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE OTHER THAN TO INCORPORATE RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY START TO THE
MORNING, WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM 10-15
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S. UPPER TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
BEGIN TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING, WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL SEND A SURGE
OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING RESULTING IN A
PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING STRATUS DECK, AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIST/FOG
AND DRIZZLE HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. POPS
WILL BE HELD TO 10% OR LESS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED A MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES WILL MINIMIZE
THE DIURNAL CURVE, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 314 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025/
/TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD/
A DANGEROUSLY COLD SEVERAL DAYS WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS AND PIPES SHOULD BE TAKEN TODAY OR
TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY COAT SURFACES WITH A THIN SHEET OF ICE ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT, NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL TEMPORARILY RESIDE WITHIN THE "WARM" AIRMASS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE
FOR A DREARY START TO THE DAY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DESCEND AS THE WIND PICKS UP. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA, AT 850MB, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN
TIMEFRAME FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FROM AROUND
SUNSET THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRY AIR SHUNTS THE REMAINING
MOISTURE EASTWARD.
THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY SEGUE INTO THE NEXT
HAZARD...THE EXTREMELY COLD CONDITIONS THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -8F TO 17F,
WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.
A LARGE PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EMERGE OUT THE FREEZE ON
FRIDAY. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 7F IN NORTH TEXAS TO 20F ACROSS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT
OR BELOW 0F ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 0F TO 10F. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
IS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER
TODAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO THAW ON
FRIDAY AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS LIKELY TO CLIMB JUST ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP BELOW FREEZING AS THE SUN SETS ON FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO COME BACK FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS REGARDING THE LATE WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A RAPID WARMING TREND WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ON SATURDAY AND 60S BY SUNDAY. A WEEK FROM
TODAY, WE'LL BE BACK IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
LIGHT ENE WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE SCATTERED
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. BY THIS EVENING, MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BEGIN TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, INITIALLY AT
VFR HEIGHTS OF 3-4 KFT. HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT, CIGS WILL PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR BETWEEN
06-12Z. AREAS OF MIST AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR CATEGORY AS
WELL. A MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 46 50 19 30 / 0 10 60 20 0
WACO 57 48 63 23 36 / 0 5 30 20 0
PARIS 52 38 42 19 31 / 0 10 80 60 0
DENTON 55 44 46 14 29 / 0 10 60 20 0
MCKINNEY 54 42 47 18 30 / 0 10 70 30 0
DALLAS 56 46 53 19 31 / 0 10 60 30 0
TERRELL 55 43 53 21 32 / 0 10 70 40 0
CORSICANA 57 46 59 26 34 / 0 10 50 40 0
TEMPLE 59 49 65 24 35 / 0 5 30 20 0
MINERAL WELLS 58 44 49 14 27 / 0 5 30 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156-157-159.
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