611
FXUS64 KFWD 172113
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
STRONG NORTH WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD CAUSE PATCHY ICE ON ROADS.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 100 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025/
/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MUCH WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES, WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP/BLANKET THE AREA. SOME
DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED BY SUNRISE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, WITH LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPING AREAWIDE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
STATES AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MIX IN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. DESPITE THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE MID 40S NORTH
TO NEAR 70 IN OUR SOUTH.
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK REGARDING THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND THE LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
EVENING. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER AROUND
MIDDAY, THE METROPLEX IN THE 20-21Z TIMEFRAME, WACO-TEMPLE-KILLEEN
BETWEEN 22-00Z, AND BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 03Z. BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING BY 3-6
HOURS OR SO, SOONER NEAR THE RED RIVER AND LONGER IN OUR SOUTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR QUICKLY OVERTAKING THE LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT, SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN
TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES, WHICH COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE. THE METROPLEX WILL BE ON THE SOUTH END OF THE FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL WITH A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE POSSIBLE. NO FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR CENTRAL
TEXAS COUNTIES AS ANY RAIN WILL END BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. AS FAR AS IMPACTS, SHOULD THESE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OCCUR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, SOME ICY SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ON AREA
ROADS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SOME ICE COULD ALSO FORM
ON ROADS WHERE LEFTOVER WATER REMAINS FROM THE LIGHT RAIN EARLIER
IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR/OVER
40 MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO DRY ROADS OUT
QUICKLY, AND AGAIN ANY ICE ON ROADS SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP SOME 30 TO 40 DEGREES AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE, GOING FROM THE 40S/50S/60S ON TUESDAY DOWN INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS, TEENS AND 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS
BECOMING DANGEROUSLY COLD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE -10 TO 15
RANGE.
SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
AFTER A DOWNRIGHT COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING, SLOWLY RETURNING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY AREAS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 DEGREES WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS-MERIDIAN-LOMETA
LINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE THAT THESE AREAS COULD
STILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING REGION-WIDE,
WITH OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -5 TO 10.
BOTH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND AN EXCESSIVE COLD WARNING ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THESE COLD WIND CHILLS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ONLY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH A GOOD PORTION
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A LONG-DURATION FREEZE EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WITH
SOME SPOTS IN OUR NORTHWEST REMAINING AT 32 DEGREES OR LESS FOR
AROUND 70 HOURS STRAIGHT! MAKE SURE TO FINALIZE PREPARATIONS TODAY
BY PROPERLY COVERING OUTDOOR PIPES AND PLANTS, PREPPING INDOOR
PIPES AND CABINETS, AND KEEPING PETS INDOORS.
THANKFULLY, EVERYONE SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM IN EARNEST
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY, BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL OF A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY
FREEZING RAIN, THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF SUCH, AND ULTIMATELY ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN AND ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE
TO CHECK BACK THIS WEEK!
THE WARM UP WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE FORECAST
HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT MONDAY.
PRATER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 100 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS. BROKEN VFR CIGS AROUND 3.5K FT WILL DEVELOP AT AIRPORTS
THIS EVENING, WITH CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR OVERNIGHT
AND LIFR ON TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
8-13 KTS. A STRONG FROPA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 44 51 19 31 14 / 10 70 20 0 0
WACO 48 59 23 34 18 / 5 50 20 0 0
PARIS 37 41 21 30 13 / 10 90 50 0 0
DENTON 41 47 14 29 10 / 10 80 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 40 46 18 31 12 / 10 80 30 0 0
DALLAS 44 51 20 32 15 / 10 70 20 0 0
TERRELL 42 50 21 34 14 / 10 80 40 0 0
CORSICANA 46 57 25 34 18 / 5 70 30 0 0
TEMPLE 48 64 23 36 17 / 5 40 20 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 43 54 13 29 10 / 5 50 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
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