387
FXUS64 KFWD 180039
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
STRONG NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD CAUSE PATCHY ICE ON ROADS.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CURRENTLY SHOWS A TROUGH WITH
ITS AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES. OVER THE COURSE OF TONIGHT,
THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, AN
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (CURRENTLY BRINGING RECORD COLD TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS) WILL MAKE ITS FINAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TOMORROW. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DEEP SURFACE BASED SATURATED LAYER, WITH
SOME MODELS AS DEEP AS 5 TO 6 KFT. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC
DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG-PRONE AREAS AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES. ALL IN
ALL, TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE COLD AND DAMP, WITH TEMPERATURES
LINGERING IN THE 40S.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED SOMEWHERE
IN WEST TEXAS AND BEGUN TO MAKE ITS TREK NORTHEAST OFF TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE 50S WITH ON
AND OFF LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING INTO EARLY TOMORROW EVENING. THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (60 TO 80 PERCENT) WILL BE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM, WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
QUICKLY SWITCHING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH TO NORTHERLY
AT 20 TO 30 MPH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST UP TO 40 MPH (20
PERCENT CHANCE).
TOMORROW EVENING'S FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX.
THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RAPIDLY DROP
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LEAVES A NARROW WINDOW, MOST LIKELY
SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM WHERE ONE OF TWO SCENARIOS WILL
PLAY OUT:
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO (60 PERCENT CHANCE): THE INTRUSION OF
COLD, DRY AIR IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY, BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE MID-30S BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION ENDS. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT JUST FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, ENDING BY 7 PM.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL SCENARIO (40 PERCENT CHANCE): PRECIPITATION
LINGERS LONGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP)
MAY PUT DOWN ANYWHERE FROM A GLAZE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE. ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STILL CLEAR
OUT BY MIDNIGHT IN THIS SCENARIO, REMAINING LIQUID FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF, IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 380.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT NOT ONLY ARE BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS
PLAUSIBLE, BUT SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS ARE STILL EXPECTED REGARDLESS
OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL HELP ANY
REMAINING WATER ON ROADWAYS FREEZE QUICKLY TOMORROW NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH STRONG
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE -10 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE NORTH
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO PARIS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 313 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
AFTER A DOWNRIGHT COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING, SLOWLY RETURNING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY AREAS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 DEGREES WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS-MERIDIAN-LOMETA
LINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE THAT THESE AREAS COULD
STILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING REGION-WIDE,
WITH OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -5 TO 10.
BOTH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND AN EXCESSIVE COLD WARNING ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THESE COLD WIND CHILLS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ONLY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH A GOOD PORTION
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A LONG-DURATION FREEZE EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WITH
SOME SPOTS IN OUR NORTHWEST REMAINING AT 32 DEGREES OR LESS FOR
AROUND 70 HOURS STRAIGHT! MAKE SURE TO FINALIZE PREPARATIONS TODAY
BY PROPERLY COVERING OUTDOOR PIPES AND PLANTS, PREPPING INDOOR
PIPES AND CABINETS, AND KEEPING PETS INDOORS.
THANKFULLY, EVERYONE SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM IN EARNEST
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY, BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL OF A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY
FREEZING RAIN, THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF SUCH, AND ULTIMATELY ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN AND ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE
TO CHECK BACK THIS WEEK!
THE WARM UP WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE FORECAST
HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT MONDAY.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP AT
ALL TAF SITES, WITH ALL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW IFR BY 12Z.
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK FROM SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10-15 KNOTS TO NORTHERLY AT 15-25 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS FOR 2 TO
3 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HAVE KEPT THESE LOWER-PROBABILITY
GUSTS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THIS FRONT, FROZEN PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AT
TAF SITES DURING THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 44 49 18 31 14 / 20 70 20 0 0
WACO 48 60 23 34 18 / 10 50 20 0 0
PARIS 37 40 19 30 13 / 10 90 40 0 0
DENTON 41 47 14 29 10 / 20 70 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 40 46 17 31 12 / 20 80 30 0 0
DALLAS 45 50 19 32 15 / 20 70 20 0 0
TERRELL 42 49 20 34 14 / 10 70 30 0 0
CORSICANA 46 55 24 34 18 / 10 70 30 0 0
TEMPLE 48 62 22 36 17 / 10 40 20 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 43 53 13 29 10 / 10 40 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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