502
FXUS64 KFWD 180731
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH THIS MORNING'S FORECAST ISSUANCE, BRIEF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHICH WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO RESULT IN ICING MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
OVERALL, LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS WHICH
UNSURPRISINGLY IS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP/HRRR AND 3 KM NAM. THE
MAIN TIME WINDOWS OF CONCERN FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOON
TO 6 PM FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AND ABOUT 5 PM TO 10 PM FOR AREAS
FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS HAVE ENTERED NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 1 AM, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM LUBBOCK TO OKC AT THIS TIME. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS, ENTERING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK, MOVING SE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND EXITING OUR CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM, WHILE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE STEADILY INCREASES IN COVERAGE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD BRIEFLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
TEXAS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
TOTALS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
HOWEVER, EVEN THESE VERY LIGHT TOTALS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND MANY ROADS SHOULD
BE JUST FINE FOR TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY TREATED SURFACE ROADWAYS.
OTHER FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF IMPACTS ARE
PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
NEAR-SURFACE AIR. THIS SHOULD AID WITH EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION OF
SURFACE MOISTURE, SO IMPROVEMENT TO IMPACTED ROADS COULD STILL
OCCUR VIA THESE MECHANISMS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO
MATERIALIZE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDES OF NORTH TEXAS LAKES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME
WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AND CLOUD LAYER
FALLING AS LOW AS -10 TO -12C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BENEATH THE WARM NOSE.
NO SNOW WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS MAY BEAR WATCHING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOME VERY LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THEIR COLDEST
VALUES OF THE SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO 0
DEGREES EXPECTED ROUGHLY FORM THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHWESTWARD.
DESPITE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH SHOULD MANAGE TO
REACH THE MID 30S OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THE ENTIRE
DAY THOUGH, WITH MAXIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY REACHING THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 313 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025/
/WEDNESDAY ONWARD/
AFTER A DOWNRIGHT COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING, SLOWLY RETURNING
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WILL STAY BELOW
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY AREAS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 DEGREES WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS-MERIDIAN-LOMETA
LINE. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE THAT THESE AREAS COULD
STILL STAY BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING REGION-WIDE,
WITH OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20 AND WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM -5 TO 10.
BOTH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND AN EXCESSIVE COLD WARNING ARE
NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THESE COLD WIND CHILLS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ONLY A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH A GOOD PORTION
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A LONG-DURATION FREEZE EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, WITH
SOME SPOTS IN OUR NORTHWEST REMAINING AT 32 DEGREES OR LESS FOR
AROUND 70 HOURS STRAIGHT! MAKE SURE TO FINALIZE PREPARATIONS TODAY
BY PROPERLY COVERING OUTDOOR PIPES AND PLANTS, PREPPING INDOOR
PIPES AND CABINETS, AND KEEPING PETS INDOORS.
THANKFULLY, EVERYONE SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM IN EARNEST
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS BROUGHT
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY, BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL OF A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY
FREEZING RAIN, THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF SUCH, AND ULTIMATELY ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS NEW MODEL
GUIDANCE COMES IN AND ASSESS ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONTINUE
TO CHECK BACK THIS WEEK!
THE WARM UP WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHERE FORECAST
HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE 70S NEXT MONDAY.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS AT 2-3 KFT ARE SPREADING INTO ALL TAF SITES AS OF 06Z,
PRECEDING THE ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF IFR/LIFR CIGS SET TO OCCUR AROUND
12Z. STRATUS AT 300-500 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME WHILE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE STEADILY INCREASES IN
COVERAGE. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY ACT TO REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO
THE 2-4SM RANGE AT TIMES. BY THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT SPEEDS AROUND 20G30KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS AROUND 00Z, AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY LINGER FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW HOURS
RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 03-04Z WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 18 28 14 33 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO 57 23 32 18 36 / 40 20 0 0 0
PARIS 39 19 28 13 34 / 80 50 0 0 0
DENTON 47 14 26 10 32 / 80 20 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 45 17 28 12 33 / 80 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 48 19 29 15 34 / 70 20 0 0 0
TERRELL 47 19 30 14 36 / 70 30 0 0 0
CORSICANA 54 24 32 18 37 / 70 30 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 22 33 17 37 / 30 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 49 12 27 10 32 / 50 5 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ093-094-103-104-118-119-133-134.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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