268
FXUS64 KFWD 180928
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 131 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH THIS MORNING'S FORECAST ISSUANCE, BRIEF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHICH WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO RESULT IN ICING MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
OVERALL, LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS WHICH
UNSURPRISINGLY IS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP/HRRR AND 3 KM NAM. THE
MAIN TIME WINDOWS OF CONCERN FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOON
TO 6 PM FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AND ABOUT 5 PM TO 10 PM FOR AREAS
FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS HAVE ENTERED NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 1 AM, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM LUBBOCK TO OKC AT THIS TIME. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS, ENTERING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK, MOVING SE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND EXITING OUR CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM, WHILE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE STEADILY INCREASES IN COVERAGE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD BRIEFLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
TEXAS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
TOTALS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
HOWEVER, EVEN THESE VERY LIGHT TOTALS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND MANY ROADS SHOULD
BE JUST FINE FOR TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY TREATED SURFACE ROADWAYS.
OTHER FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF IMPACTS ARE
PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
NEAR-SURFACE AIR. THIS SHOULD AID WITH EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION OF
SURFACE MOISTURE, SO IMPROVEMENT TO IMPACTED ROADS COULD STILL
OCCUR VIA THESE MECHANISMS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO
MATERIALIZE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDES OF NORTH TEXAS LAKES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME
WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AND CLOUD LAYER
FALLING AS LOW AS -10 TO -12C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BENEATH THE WARM NOSE.
NO SNOW WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS MAY BEAR WATCHING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOME VERY LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THEIR COLDEST
VALUES OF THE SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO 0
DEGREES EXPECTED ROUGHLY FORM THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHWESTWARD.
DESPITE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH SHOULD MANAGE TO
REACH THE MID 30S OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THE ENTIRE
DAY THOUGH, WITH MAXIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY REACHING THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TAKE HOLD OF THE ENTIRE REGION.
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE BELOW 15 MPH, WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -6 TO 7 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WITH A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS UNDER A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH
MANY LOCATIONS FAILING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB ABOVE 32
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP BELOW 32 AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY, OVERSPREADING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A RESIDUAL SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE,
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RETURN. HAVING
SAID THAT, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING REMAINS
LOW GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION (>32F) JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-32 DEGREES AND LATENT
HEAT RELEASE AS SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS ATTACH TO FREEZING
SURFACES. THESE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY ANALYZED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST A
CERTAINTY.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SHUNT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
OUR REGION, LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL TURN OUR WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST COME SUNDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RAPID
WARM-UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S -- A DRASTIC CHANGE COMPARED TO
WHAT WE'LL HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY! THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES MID NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A RETURN
OF LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/ISSUED 131 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS AT 2-3 KFT ARE SPREADING INTO ALL TAF SITES AS OF 06Z,
PRECEDING THE ABRUPT ARRIVAL OF IFR/LIFR CIGS SET TO OCCUR AROUND
12Z. STRATUS AT 300-500 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME WHILE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE STEADILY INCREASES IN
COVERAGE. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY ACT TO REDUCE VISIBILITY INTO
THE 2-4SM RANGE AT TIMES. BY THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT SPEEDS AROUND 20G30KT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AT METROPLEX AIRPORTS AROUND 00Z, AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY LINGER FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW HOURS
RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY 03-04Z WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 18 28 15 31 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO 57 23 32 16 36 / 40 20 0 0 0
PARIS 39 19 28 11 30 / 80 50 0 0 0
DENTON 47 14 26 10 31 / 80 20 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 45 17 28 11 32 / 80 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 48 19 29 15 33 / 70 20 0 0 0
TERRELL 47 19 30 14 33 / 70 30 0 0 0
CORSICANA 54 24 32 17 34 / 70 30 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 22 33 17 35 / 30 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 49 12 27 10 30 / 50 5 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ093-094-103-104-118-119-133-134.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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