644
FXUS64 KFWD 181130
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TODAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS MAINLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH ARCTIC AIR JUST A FEW HOURS FROM OUR DOORSTEP.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS ORIENTED SW-NE, DRAPED ROUGHLY
FROM MIDLAND TO WICHITA FALLS TO FORT SMITH AS OF 530 AM. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
EARLY AS 10 AM, AND WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WERE NECESSARY WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE, AND THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS MIDNIGHT FORECAST ISSUANCE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR WITH THIS EVENT,
BUT SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT AS DISCUSSED BELOW, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY, AS WELL AS PERHAPS SOME VERY FINE SLEET
PELLETS SIMPLY DUE TO THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS SUCH THAT ICE CRYSTALS MAY BE INTRODUCED TO THE CLOUD
LAYER BENEATH THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH THIS MORNING'S FORECAST ISSUANCE, BRIEF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHICH WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATER TODAY DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO RESULT IN ICING MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
OVERALL, LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS WHICH
UNSURPRISINGLY IS BEST HANDLED BY THE RAP/HRRR AND 3 KM NAM. THE
MAIN TIME WINDOWS OF CONCERN FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOON
TO 6 PM FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AND ABOUT 5 PM TO 10 PM FOR AREAS
FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS HAVE ENTERED NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 1 AM, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ROUGHLY FROM LUBBOCK TO OKC AT THIS TIME. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS, ENTERING OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK, MOVING SE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND EXITING OUR CWA TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM, WHILE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE STEADILY INCREASES IN COVERAGE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD BRIEFLY COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
TEXAS HEADING INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
TOTALS OF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
HOWEVER, EVEN THESE VERY LIGHT TOTALS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
RESULTING IN ICY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND MANY ROADS SHOULD
BE JUST FINE FOR TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY TREATED SURFACE ROADWAYS.
OTHER FACTORS THAT MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF IMPACTS ARE
PERSISTENT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER
NEAR-SURFACE AIR. THIS SHOULD AID WITH EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION OF
SURFACE MOISTURE, SO IMPROVEMENT TO IMPACTED ROADS COULD STILL
OCCUR VIA THESE MECHANISMS DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD IS A CHANCE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO
MATERIALIZE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDES OF NORTH TEXAS LAKES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME
WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AND CLOUD LAYER
FALLING AS LOW AS -10 TO -12C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT DENDRITIC
GROWTH WITH LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING BENEATH THE WARM NOSE.
NO SNOW WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAKE OF
SIMPLICITY AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS MAY BEAR WATCHING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOME VERY LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE A
POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THEIR COLDEST
VALUES OF THE SEASON WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES OF -10 TO 0
DEGREES EXPECTED ROUGHLY FORM THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHWESTWARD.
DESPITE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH SHOULD MANAGE TO
REACH THE MID 30S OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THE ENTIRE
DAY THOUGH, WITH MAXIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY REACHING THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TAKE HOLD OF THE ENTIRE REGION.
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE BELOW 15 MPH, WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -6 TO 7 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WITH A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS UNDER A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH
MANY LOCATIONS FAILING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB ABOVE 32
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP BELOW 32 AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY, OVERSPREADING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A RESIDUAL SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE,
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RETURN. HAVING
SAID THAT, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING REMAINS
LOW GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION (>32F) JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-32 DEGREES AND LATENT
HEAT RELEASE AS SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS ATTACH TO FREEZING
SURFACES. THESE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY ANALYZED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST A
CERTAINTY.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SHUNT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
OUR REGION, LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL TURN OUR WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST COME SUNDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RAPID
WARM-UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S -- A DRASTIC CHANGE COMPARED TO
WHAT WE'LL HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY! THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES MID NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A RETURN
OF LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES AS OF 1130Z,
AND IFR/LIFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
DRIZZLE IS ALSO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE, AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL
AFFECT THE TAF SITES ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME WHILE OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR CATEGORIES.
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM
EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY BY MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
SHARPLY AFTER 20-21Z. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AT
METROPLEX AIRPORTS AROUND 00Z, AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW HOURS RESULTING IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03-04Z WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL
CLIMB FROM IFR TO MVFR HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT, BUT VFR IS UNLIKELY TO
RESUME UNTIL LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 17 29 15 31 / 70 20 0 0 0
WACO 55 22 34 16 36 / 50 20 0 0 0
PARIS 40 18 30 11 30 / 90 40 0 0 0
DENTON 48 12 27 10 31 / 80 20 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 45 15 28 11 32 / 80 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 49 18 31 15 33 / 70 20 0 0 0
TERRELL 48 19 32 14 33 / 80 30 0 0 0
CORSICANA 52 23 34 17 34 / 70 30 0 0 0
TEMPLE 55 21 36 17 35 / 50 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 11 27 10 30 / 60 5 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ093-094-103-104-118-119-133-134.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page