317
FXUS64 KFWD 181828
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED TODAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS MAINLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS STARTED TO SEEP SOUTH
AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE TODAY'S HIGHS,
WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT IS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH COLD AIR GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE METROPLEX WILL FALL TO AND BELOW
FREEZING BY AROUND 5-6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TEMPERATURE TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE
RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES TOWARD CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS COLD
AIR WILL SOLIDIFY ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY UNLIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AS FOR WIND CHILLS, THEY WILL BE QUITE COLD! WIND SPEEDS WILL
RAMP UP BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH, AROUND 20 TO
25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS EARLY
AS 1 TO 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WEST OF I-35 DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS MERELY THE BEGINNING THOUGH. WIND CHILLS
WILL FINALLY BOTTOM OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DROPPING ALL THE WAY
DOWN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT
9 PM AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
ALL OF THIS SAID, BE SURE TO HAVE YOUR WINTER PLAN IN PLACE NOW.
MAKE SURE YOUR HOME IS WINTERIZED, BRING IN PETS, AND MAKE SURE TO
CHECK IN ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS IN YOUR LIFE AS MUCH AS YOU
CAN. BEST PRACTICE WOULD BE TO STAY AT HOME AND STAY BUNDLED UP,
BUT IF YOU NEED TO GET OUT - BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR
THE COLD.
WHILE THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR REMAINS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. SPECIFICALLY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM OUN REVEALS A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM JUST ABOVE 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT
REMAINS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS THIS SHALLOW, DENSE ARCTIC AIR
MASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES JUST AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR MINOR ICE ACCRETION. EXPECT THIS ICE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ICE ACCRETION, RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACT ON ROAD CONDITIONS.
WORST CASE SCENARIO STILL KEEPS THESE ICY IMPACTS CONFINED TO SOME
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WHILE TREATED SURFACE ROADS WILL REMAIN
IN GOOD SHAPE. WET ROADS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AS FAST AS THEY ARE, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ASSIST IN
DRYING ROADS OUT. THIS WILL HELP PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FREEZE SITUATION ON THE ROADS. MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO DRIER AIR
SETTLING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF ANY
MAJOR LAKES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN MINOR,
IF ANY OCCUR AT ALL. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACTS AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW DRY AND POWDERY ANY SNOW COULD BE.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 328 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TAKE HOLD OF THE ENTIRE REGION.
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE BELOW 15 MPH, WIND
CHILLS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -6 TO 7 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WITH A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS UNDER A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY.
THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION THAT WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH
MANY LOCATIONS FAILING TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY,
FRIDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB ABOVE 32
DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP BELOW 32 AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY, OVERSPREADING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A RESIDUAL SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE,
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL RETURN. HAVING
SAID THAT, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING REMAINS
LOW GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION (>32F) JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-32 DEGREES AND LATENT
HEAT RELEASE AS SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS ATTACH TO FREEZING
SURFACES. THESE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY ANALYZED IN
THE COMING DAYS WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST A
CERTAINTY.
AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SHUNT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE EAST OF
OUR REGION, LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WILL TURN OUR WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST COME SUNDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A RAPID
WARM-UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S -- A DRASTIC CHANGE COMPARED TO
WHAT WE'LL HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY! THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ARRIVES MID NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALONG WITH A RETURN
OF LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...IFR/LIFR CIGS, FROPA, LOW POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TONIGHT.
DREARY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR BASED MAINLY ON CEILINGS, BUT OCCASIONALLY
FOR VISIBILITY TOO GIVEN PERIODIC DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
AREA, WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH ALREADY HAPPENING
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AND BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE D10
AIRSPACE. THIS COULD START AS EARLY AS 23Z, WITH THE PRIMARY
WINDOW BETWEEN 00-03Z. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH
PERSISTING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WELL TO MVFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 17 29 15 31 22 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO 22 34 16 36 25 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS 19 30 11 30 19 / 50 0 0 0 0
DENTON 13 27 10 31 18 / 10 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 16 28 11 32 19 / 20 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 19 30 15 33 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 19 31 14 33 21 / 30 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 24 34 17 34 24 / 30 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 22 34 17 35 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 11 27 10 30 18 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-
092-100>102-115>117.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ093-094-103-104-118-119-133-134.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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