296
FXUS64 KFWD 182013
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED TODAY, BRINGING STRONG NORTH
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
OF -10 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. THIS COULD RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS MAINLY ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1228 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS STARTED TO SEEP SOUTH
AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE TODAY'S HIGHS,
WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE GENERAL ORIENTATION OF THIS FRONT IS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH COLD AIR GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE METROPLEX WILL FALL TO AND BELOW
FREEZING BY AROUND 5-6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TEMPERATURE TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE
RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES TOWARD CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS COLD
AIR WILL SOLIDIFY ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY UNLIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AS FOR WIND CHILLS, THEY WILL BE QUITE COLD! WIND SPEEDS WILL
RAMP UP BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH, AROUND 20 TO
25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS EARLY
AS 1 TO 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WEST OF I-35 DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS MERELY THE BEGINNING THOUGH. WIND CHILLS
WILL FINALLY BOTTOM OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, DROPPING ALL THE WAY
DOWN ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT
9 PM AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
ALL OF THIS SAID, BE SURE TO HAVE YOUR WINTER PLAN IN PLACE NOW.
MAKE SURE YOUR HOME IS WINTERIZED, BRING IN PETS, AND MAKE SURE TO
CHECK IN ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS IN YOUR LIFE AS MUCH AS YOU
CAN. BEST PRACTICE WOULD BE TO STAY AT HOME AND STAY BUNDLED UP,
BUT IF YOU NEED TO GET OUT - BE SURE TO DRESS APPROPRIATELY FOR
THE COLD.
WHILE THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR REMAINS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR OUR
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE DOES REMAIN A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION. SPECIFICALLY IN THE FORM
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM OUN REVEALS A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM JUST ABOVE 850MB DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THERE IS ALSO A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT
REMAINS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS THIS SHALLOW, DENSE ARCTIC AIR
MASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION, TEMPERATURES JUST AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR MINOR ICE ACCRETION. EXPECT THIS ICE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ICE ACCRETION, RAIN RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACT ON ROAD CONDITIONS.
WORST CASE SCENARIO STILL KEEPS THESE ICY IMPACTS CONFINED TO SOME
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WHILE TREATED SURFACE ROADS WILL REMAIN
IN GOOD SHAPE. WET ROADS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AS FAST AS THEY ARE, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ASSIST IN
DRYING ROADS OUT. THIS WILL HELP PREVENT ANY POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FREEZE SITUATION ON THE ROADS. MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO DRIER AIR
SETTLING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. EVEN THOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF ANY
MAJOR LAKES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN MINOR,
IF ANY OCCUR AT ALL. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL IMPACTS AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW DRY AND POWDERY ANY SNOW COULD BE.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND/
THE FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FORTUNATELY, THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND
TUESDAY'S ARCTIC FRONT WILL HAVE DIED DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE AIR TEMPERATURES. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY, WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. OUR
EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND AREAS IN AND AROUND THE DFW
METROPLEX MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THEN AS WELL. HOWEVER,
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM FLUCTUATIONS TOO DRASTICALLY. EXPECT ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAIL. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING, IF ANY RAIN EVEN MATERIALIZES AT ALL FOR OUR
AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER AND THE ECMWF DOESN'T
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL USHER IN A NOTICEABLE
TEMPERATURE REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AS VEERING WINDS YIELD
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THAT ACCOMPANY AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT. THIS WILL AVAIL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S AND 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WORK WEEK.
SCHROEDER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1228 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...IFR/LIFR CIGS, FROPA, LOW POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TONIGHT.
DREARY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WILL KEEP FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR BASED MAINLY ON CEILINGS, BUT OCCASIONALLY
FOR VISIBILITY TOO GIVEN PERIODIC DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
AREA, WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH ALREADY HAPPENING
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AND BELOW FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE D10
AIRSPACE. THIS COULD START AS EARLY AS 23Z, WITH THE PRIMARY
WINDOW BETWEEN 00-03Z. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, WITH GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH
PERSISTING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WELL TO MVFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 17 29 15 31 22 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO 22 34 16 36 25 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS 19 30 11 30 19 / 50 0 0 0 0
DENTON 13 27 10 31 18 / 10 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 16 28 11 32 19 / 20 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 19 30 15 33 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 19 31 14 33 21 / 30 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 24 34 17 34 24 / 30 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 22 34 17 35 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 11 27 10 30 18 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ091-
092-100>102-115>117.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ093-094-103-104-118-119-133-134.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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