050
FXUS64 KFWD 190007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN ICY CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS CLEARED THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES, IMMERSING
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, ON
THE WAY TO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW
20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP A
NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE RESULT, WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE
-10 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. MINOR IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST SURFACE
HEATING, BUT PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS (ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS OF -5 TO 10 DEGREES) WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HENCE KEEP THE EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG WITH THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS IN PLACE.
FORTUNATELY, PRECIPITATION IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUB-FREEZING AIR
HAS BEEN LIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES DROP. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, WHICH WILL STILL CREATE ICY SPOTS ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 9 PM FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE, WHICH CAN STILL
BE HAZARDOUS. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SHUT OFF LATE THIS EVENING AS
THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE PLAINS AND SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AIR AND STRONG WINDS SHOULD HELP
GRADUALLY SUBLIMATE THE ICY AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT DOWNSTREAM OF AREA RESERVOIRS, WHERE
THE STRONG ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS MAY
GENERATE FLURRIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE FLURRIES MAY OCCUR.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 213 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND/
THE FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FORTUNATELY, THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND
TUESDAY'S ARCTIC FRONT WILL HAVE DIED DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE AIR TEMPERATURES. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY, WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. OUR
EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND AREAS IN AND AROUND THE DFW
METROPLEX MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THEN AS WELL. HOWEVER,
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM FLUCTUATIONS TOO DRASTICALLY. EXPECT ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAIL. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING, IF ANY RAIN EVEN MATERIALIZES AT ALL FOR OUR
AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER AND THE ECMWF DOESN'T
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL USHER IN A NOTICEABLE
TEMPERATURE REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AS VEERING WINDS YIELD
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THAT ACCOMPANY AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT. THIS WILL AVAIL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S AND 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WORK WEEK.
SCHROEDER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCASIONALLY IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING, LIKELY ENDING AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. SNOW FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN THE METROPLEX,
THOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WILL NOT INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND LOW IMPACTS,
BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS THIS EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN VFR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 17 29 14 33 22 / 30 0 0 0 0
WACO 22 33 17 36 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS 17 29 13 33 19 / 60 0 0 0 0
DENTON 12 27 10 31 18 / 20 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 15 28 11 32 19 / 30 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 18 30 15 33 24 / 30 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 19 30 13 34 21 / 50 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 23 33 17 36 24 / 40 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 21 35 15 38 22 / 20 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 12 28 10 33 18 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ091>094-100>104-115>119-133-134.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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