720
FXUS64 KFWD 190709
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES, WINTRY PRECIPITATION
HAS CEASED ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS NOW BELOW FREEZING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MANY AREAS THIS
MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED, RANGING FROM -10F TO
10F. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE QUITE MINIMAL, THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUBLIMATE ANY ICE
ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER SURFACES. HOWEVER, CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WHILE DRIVING, AS A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING - MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
DENSE, LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE
MID 30S, BUT THERE IS A ~40-50% CHANCE THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WELL. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT REALLY IS, WITH WIND
CHILLS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
DANGEROUS COLD IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREA-WIDE. WHILE
WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY CURRENTLY ARE, WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL FALL INTO THE -8F TO 8F RANGE. DESPITE WEAKENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO
MODERATE AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 213 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND/
THE FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH MORNING
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FORTUNATELY, THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND
TUESDAY'S ARCTIC FRONT WILL HAVE DIED DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THE AIR TEMPERATURES. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY, WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. OUR
EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND AREAS IN AND AROUND THE DFW
METROPLEX MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THEN AS WELL. HOWEVER,
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM FLUCTUATIONS TOO DRASTICALLY. EXPECT ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAIL. LOW RAIN CHANCES ALSO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A LOW
POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MOVE INTO THE
AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE FREEZING, IF ANY RAIN EVEN MATERIALIZES AT ALL FOR OUR
AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS EARLY
WEEKEND SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER AND THE ECMWF DOESN'T
BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL USHER IN A NOTICEABLE
TEMPERATURE REBOUND ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AS VEERING WINDS YIELD
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THAT ACCOMPANY AN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT. THIS WILL AVAIL TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 60S AND 70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WORK WEEK.
SCHROEDER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON UNTIL CEILINGS EVENTUALLY LIFT/SCATTER, ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 15 29 14 32 22 / 10 0 0 0 0
WACO 20 33 16 35 24 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 17 30 12 32 19 / 40 0 0 0 0
DENTON 11 28 10 31 18 / 10 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 14 28 10 32 19 / 10 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 16 29 14 33 24 / 10 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 17 31 13 34 21 / 30 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 22 32 17 35 24 / 20 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 20 34 15 36 22 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 10 27 10 32 18 / 10 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-133-134.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-162-174-175.
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