707
FXUS64 KFWD 190906
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 109 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES, WINTRY PRECIPITATION
HAS CEASED ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS NOW BELOW FREEZING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MANY AREAS THIS
MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED, RANGING FROM -10F TO
10F. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE QUITE MINIMAL, THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUBLIMATE ANY ICE
ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER SURFACES. HOWEVER, CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WHILE DRIVING, AS A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING - MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
DENSE, LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE
MID 30S, BUT THERE IS A ~40-50% CHANCE THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WELL. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT REALLY IS, WITH WIND
CHILLS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
DANGEROUS COLD IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREA-WIDE. WHILE
WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY CURRENTLY ARE, WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL FALL INTO THE -8F TO 8F RANGE. DESPITE WEAKENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO
MODERATE AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/FRIDAY ONWARD/
MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
LIGHT ESE WINDS RETURN, WITH THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD NIGHT WILL
STILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 24-32 DEGREE RANGE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL RESUME HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT, ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY. AT
THIS TIME, MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WHILE THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ONGOING, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. HOWEVER, SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32F. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM VIA WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME AS RAIN EXPANDS INTO
PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS BEFORE VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 60S.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MORE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 70S THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AND PERHAPS
EVEN A FEW 80S BY TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MID OR LATE WEEK PERIOD, BUT THIS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A VERY WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 7.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/ISSUED 109 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
/06Z TAFS/
INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON UNTIL CEILINGS EVENTUALLY LIFT/SCATTER, ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 29 14 32 23 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 33 16 35 22 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 30 12 32 20 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 28 10 31 18 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 28 10 32 19 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 29 14 33 23 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 31 13 34 20 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 32 17 35 23 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 34 15 36 21 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 27 10 32 18 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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