390
FXUS64 KFWD 191203
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
603 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
FINE SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE MOST OF THIS IS VERY
LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION, WE HAVE SEEN PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT DOWNWIND OF A COUPLE OF AREA LAKES THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH BITTER
COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE MENTION OF
SNOW/FLURRIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WAS EXPANDED
OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE THE FEW COUNTIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. THE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BARNES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES, WINTRY PRECIPITATION
HAS CEASED ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT MIDNIGHT. THE FREEZING LINE HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS NOW BELOW FREEZING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MANY AREAS THIS
MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED, RANGING FROM -10F TO
10F. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE QUITE MINIMAL, THE STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUBLIMATE ANY ICE
ON ROADWAYS AND OTHER SURFACES. HOWEVER, CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
EXERCISED WHILE DRIVING, AS A FEW SLICK SPOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING - MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
DENSE, LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE
MID 30S, BUT THERE IS A ~40-50% CHANCE THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN
JUST BELOW FREEZING AS WELL. PERSISTENT BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN IT REALLY IS, WITH WIND
CHILLS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
DANGEROUS COLD IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREA-WIDE. WHILE
WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY CURRENTLY ARE, WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL FALL INTO THE -8F TO 8F RANGE. DESPITE WEAKENING COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY, THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO
MODERATE AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 306 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
/FRIDAY ONWARD/
MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
LIGHT ESE WINDS RETURN, WITH THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD NIGHT WILL
STILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 24-32 DEGREE RANGE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL RESUME HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT, ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY. AT
THIS TIME, MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WHILE THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ONGOING, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. HOWEVER, SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32F. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM VIA WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME AS RAIN EXPANDS INTO
PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS BEFORE VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 60S.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MORE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 70S THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AND PERHAPS
EVEN A FEW 80S BY TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MID OR LATE WEEK PERIOD, BUT THIS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A VERY WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 7.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
FINE SNOW GRAINS/FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS OCCURRING FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS DOWNWIND OF
A COUPLE OF AREA LAKES. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ANY SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATER THIS MORNING, WITH VFR
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING,
BUT A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 28 14 31 23 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO 32 16 35 22 37 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 28 12 31 20 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
DENTON 27 10 30 18 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 28 10 31 19 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 29 14 31 23 39 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 13 33 20 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 32 17 34 23 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 33 15 36 21 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 27 10 31 18 39 / 20 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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