748
FXUS64 KFWD 191915
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY AND TOMORROW/
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING
WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
CHECK THE FORECAST ON OUR WEBPAGE FOR YOUR FORECAST WIND CHILL.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW WIND CHILLS
TO "WARM" INTO THE MID 20S. OUTSIDE OF THE WIND EFFECTS...THE AIR
TEMPERATURE ITSELF WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
(MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE METROPLEX) TO DAMAGE TO EXTERIOR AND
INTERIOR PLUMBING. PLEASE ENSURE YOU ARE TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT YOUR HOME AND BUSINESS FROM BUSTED PIPES DUE TO THE COLD.
...CLOUDS/PRECIP:
MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES LAST
NIGHT WITH PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DOWNWIND OF LAKES WITH
LONG NORTH TO SOUTH FETCHES EXPERIENCING ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MOST OF THE REPORTS IN THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AVERAGE
AROUND 1/2 AN INCH OF DRY SNOW, BUT SOME LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE TEXOMA RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. A HANDFUL OF NARROW LAKE
EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUB-CLOUD AIR DRIES OUT AND ENDS THE
LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY. ALL REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END AROUND
THIS TIME AS WELL. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
HAS THINNED OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN
UNDERNEATH THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MOREOVER, A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER THAT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH DRY ADVECTION UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS AND INSOLATION FROM
ABOVE WILL HELP ERODE THE STRATUS INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY STAY SOCKED IN
WITH DENSE STRATUS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
...TEMPERATURE TRENDS:
WE ARE FORECASTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE LOCATIONS IN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IF THE
CLOUDS CLEAR/THIN OUT ENOUGH. IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MOST
OF CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS CLIMBING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING. AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX HAVE A >90% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING TOMORROW, WHILE AREAS IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAVE A <20%
CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. HIGHLIGHTING A FEW SPOTS...
WACO HAS A 40% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, HILLSBORO IS AROUND 50%, DFW AIRPORT IS AROUND 75%, AND
PARIS HAS A 50% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF DFW DOES NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
FRIDAY, IT WOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT 65 HOURS. WELL
BELOW THE RECORD OF 295 HOURS SET IN DECEMBER OF 1983.
SPEAKING OF RECORDS...DFW'S RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR TODAY IS 31
DEGREES SET IN 2006. WE SHOULD BEAT THAT BY QUITE A LARGE
MARGIN. TOMORROW'S LOW MAXIMUM RECORD IS 35 FROM 1904. IF OUR
FORECAST HOLDS, WE SHOULD BEAT THAT AS WELL. WACO'S LOW MAXIMUM
RECORD FOR TODAY IS 33, ALSO FROM 2006. WE SHOULD EASILY BREAK
THAT TODAY. TOMORROW'S RECORD IS 33 SET IN 1929. THERE IS ONLY A
30% CHANCE THAT RECORD FALLS TOMORROW.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 306 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
/FRIDAY ONWARD/
MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS
LIGHT ESE WINDS RETURN, WITH THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A COLD NIGHT WILL
STILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 24-32 DEGREE RANGE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL RESUME HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A RESULT, ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY. AT
THIS TIME, MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WHILE THIS PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ONGOING, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. HOWEVER, SMALL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY
MORNING PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32F. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM VIA WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME AS RAIN EXPANDS INTO
PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS BEFORE VACATING THE AREA TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY RETURNING TO THE 60S.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MORE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 70S THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AND PERHAPS
EVEN A FEW 80S BY TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MID OR LATE WEEK PERIOD, BUT THIS IS
STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A VERY WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 7.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CLOUD BASES HAVE CLIMBED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, NOW STEADILY
ABOVE 2 KFT AT ALL TAF TERMINALS. A FEW FLURRIES CONTINUE DOWNWIND
OF NORTH TEXAS LAKES, BUT NOT AT ANY TAF SITES. THE STRATUS WILL
STEADILY THIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO BREAK INTO A
SCATTERED DECK BY AROUND 21Z. WHILE THE TAFS REMAIN VFR AFTER 21Z,
THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 10Z
TONIGHT BEFORE VFR FINALLY RETURNS TO ALL LOCATIONS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY N FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHTER NE WINDS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BONNETTE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 27 14 33 23 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO 31 16 35 22 37 / 10 0 0 0 0
PARIS 29 13 33 20 37 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENTON 27 10 32 18 37 / 20 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 28 10 32 19 38 / 20 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 29 14 33 23 39 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 30 12 33 20 39 / 20 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 31 16 35 23 39 / 20 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 30 15 36 21 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 25 10 32 18 39 / 10 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page