725
FXUS64 KFWD 192241
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
441 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT AND SCATTER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 STARTING TO SEE THE
SUN. THE SUN IS HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW FREEZING AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER DRY AIR HAS ENDED MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW BUT
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS COULD STILL SEE A FEW BRIEF
FLAKES THROUGH SUNSET.
PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL LIKE A STONE WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN RIGHT FRIGID,
RANGING FROM ABOUT -5 TO 5. THEREFORE, WE WILL KEEP THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THEREFORE, THE DETAILED DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID.
79
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/TODAY AND TOMORROW/
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING
WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.
CHECK THE FORECAST ON OUR WEBPAGE FOR YOUR FORECAST WIND CHILL.
THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW WIND CHILLS
TO "WARM" INTO THE MID 20S. OUTSIDE OF THE WIND EFFECTS...THE AIR
TEMPERATURE ITSELF WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
(MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE METROPLEX) TO DAMAGE TO EXTERIOR AND
INTERIOR PLUMBING. PLEASE ENSURE YOU ARE TAKING PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT YOUR HOME AND BUSINESS FROM BUSTED PIPES DUE TO THE COLD.
...CLOUDS/PRECIP:
MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES LAST
NIGHT WITH PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DOWNWIND OF LAKES WITH
LONG NORTH TO SOUTH FETCHES EXPERIENCING ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. MOST OF THE REPORTS IN THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AVERAGE
AROUND 1/2 AN INCH OF DRY SNOW, BUT SOME LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE TEXOMA RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. A HANDFUL OF NARROW LAKE
EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME, BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE SUB-CLOUD AIR DRIES OUT AND ENDS THE
LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY. ALL REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD END AROUND
THIS TIME AS WELL. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
HAS THINNED OUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS DRY ADVECTION MOVES IN
UNDERNEATH THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. MOREOVER, A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER THAT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
BOTH DRY ADVECTION UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS AND INSOLATION FROM
ABOVE WILL HELP ERODE THE STRATUS INTO A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MAY STAY SOCKED IN
WITH DENSE STRATUS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
...TEMPERATURE TRENDS:
WE ARE FORECASTING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE LOCATIONS IN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IF THE
CLOUDS CLEAR/THIN OUT ENOUGH. IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MOST
OF CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS CLIMBING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FREEZING. AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX HAVE A >90% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING TOMORROW, WHILE AREAS IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAVE A <20%
CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. HIGHLIGHTING A FEW SPOTS...
WACO HAS A 40% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, HILLSBORO IS AROUND 50%, DFW AIRPORT IS AROUND 75%, AND
PARIS HAS A 50% CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF DFW DOES NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
FRIDAY, IT WOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING FOR ABOUT 65 HOURS. WELL
BELOW THE RECORD OF 295 HOURS SET IN DECEMBER OF 1983.
SPEAKING OF RECORDS...DFW'S RECORD LOW MAXIMUM FOR TODAY IS 31
DEGREES SET IN 2006. WE SHOULD BEAT THAT BY QUITE A LARGE
MARGIN. TOMORROW'S LOW MAXIMUM RECORD IS 35 FROM 1904. IF OUR
FORECAST HOLDS, WE SHOULD BEAT THAT AS WELL. WACO'S LOW MAXIMUM
RECORD FOR TODAY IS 33, ALSO FROM 2006. WE SHOULD EASILY BREAK
THAT TODAY. TOMORROW'S RECORD IS 33 SET IN 1929. THERE IS ONLY A
30% CHANCE THAT RECORD FALLS TOMORROW.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 242 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
/THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON FRIDAY. ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER A LONG-DURATION FREEZE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WEEKEND, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
WE CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME,
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION REMAINS BELOW 15%.
IF TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ARE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD
QUICKLY APPROACH 0%. SATURDAY'S RAIN WILL LARGELY IMPACT EASTERN
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXCEEDING 0.5".
SUNDAY ONWARD, A STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE WEEK. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH ABOUT A
10% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (CLOSER TO NORMAL), NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
A PARTIAL CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AS OF
2230Z. THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT REACH WACO UNTIL ABOUT 02-03Z.
VFR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE CLEARING LINE WITH MAINLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FT, BUT A BRIEF MVFR
CEILING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THURSDAY WILL BE VFR WITH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
A NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT BETWEEN 12 AND 16
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW
12 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY.
79
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 14 33 20 38 28 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO 16 35 21 37 31 / 0 0 0 0 10
PARIS 13 33 19 37 24 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 10 32 16 38 23 / 0 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY 10 32 17 38 25 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALLAS 14 33 21 38 29 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL 12 33 20 38 27 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA 16 35 21 38 31 / 0 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 15 36 20 37 29 / 0 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 10 32 17 38 24 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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