364
FXUS64 KFWD 200642
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ALREADY SITTING IN THE TEENS. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LAKES, AND A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BENEATH THESE CLOUDS. A MENTION OF
FLURRIES HAS BEEN INTRODUCED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FOR THESE
AREAS; HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS FROM DEVELOPING, AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.
A MODEST NORTH WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM -4F TO 4F. THEREFORE, OUR EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, OUR AIRMASS WILL SEE LITTLE MODIFICATION, AND MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, BUT INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL TAP INTO
A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY TO OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WHICH WILL OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 242 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025/
/THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
AFTER ANOTHER COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON FRIDAY. ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER A LONG-DURATION FREEZE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WEEKEND, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
WE CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME,
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION REMAINS BELOW 15%.
IF TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ARE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WOULD
QUICKLY APPROACH 0%. SATURDAY'S RAIN WILL LARGELY IMPACT EASTERN
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXCEEDING 0.5".
SUNDAY ONWARD, A STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES TO START OUT THE WEEK. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH ABOUT A
10% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS POISED TO ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (CLOSER TO NORMAL), NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT OUR EASTERN D10
TERMINALS (DFW/GKY/DAL) AS A RESULT OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. WHILE A FEW
FLURRIES MAY FALL FROM THESE CLOUDS, SNOW BANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THANKS TO MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR (AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY). THE CURRENT TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS GOES THROUGH
10Z BUT WILL LIKELY NEED AN EXTENSION LATER THIS MORNING.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW 10
KNOTS AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THIS MORNING'S INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS, VFR IS EXPECTED MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS MAY RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 13 30 22 37 28 / 0 0 0 0 5
WACO 17 33 22 37 31 / 0 0 0 0 10
PARIS 12 31 20 37 24 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON 7 29 18 37 23 / 0 0 0 0 5
MCKINNEY 8 29 18 37 25 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALLAS 14 30 23 38 29 / 0 0 0 0 5
TERRELL 12 31 20 38 27 / 0 0 0 0 5
CORSICANA 16 32 23 38 31 / 0 0 0 0 5
TEMPLE 15 35 20 37 29 / 0 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 9 29 18 39 24 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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