097
FXUS64 KFWD 201144
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING.
- THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING, BUT WE'LL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS MORNING'S
UPDATE, THOUGH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 9-15 DEGREES. THE ADVISORY AREA MAY
SEE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS, BUT ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
CONFIGURATION WILL BE ASSESSED LATER TODAY.
BARNES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH FRIDAY/
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS ALREADY SITTING IN THE TEENS. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LAKES, AND A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BENEATH THESE CLOUDS. A MENTION OF
FLURRIES HAS BEEN INTRODUCED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING FOR THESE
AREAS; HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS FROM DEVELOPING, AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.
A MODEST NORTH WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM -4F TO 4F. THEREFORE, OUR EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, OUR AIRMASS WILL SEE LITTLE MODIFICATION, AND MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, BUT INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY AND WILL TAP INTO
A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY TO OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WHICH WILL OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 245 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK, BUT A
COLD START TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE BEFORE WE GET THERE. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN PERSISTS. THIS MAY RESULT
IN POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. AT THIS STAGE, THE AREAS OF INTEREST ARE
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TEMPLE TO FRANKLIN LINE WHERE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD BRIEFLY COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30-32F RANGE. POPS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10-20% FOR THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD, SO THIS REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD
FROM AZ/NM. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW, AND BY EXTENSION, STRONGER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. A BROAD
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN
THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE CLIMBED WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHILE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES A STEADY SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CWA TO END THE WEEKEND.
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEST COAST RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON
SUNDAY, WIDESPREAD 70S AND A FEW 80S ACROSS THE WEST ARE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
ARRIVE DURING THE MID OR LATE WEEK PERIOD, BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY SLIM WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS GENERATING QPF WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE REGION, AND VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY SEE A SUBTLE SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
BECOME EASTERLY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRATUS INTRUSION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
POTENTIAL WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
BARNES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 30 22 36 27 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
WACO 33 22 36 30 46 / 0 0 0 5 30
PARIS 31 20 36 23 48 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENTON 29 18 36 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 29 18 36 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 30 23 37 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 20
TERRELL 31 20 37 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
CORSICANA 32 23 36 31 48 / 0 0 0 5 30
TEMPLE 35 20 35 29 45 / 0 0 0 5 40
MINERAL WELLS 29 18 37 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-156>162-174-175.
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