846
FXUS64 KFWD 201924
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
124 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT STARTING AT
9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10F.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAMAR COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
BITTERLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT BEING SAID, WIND CHILLS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS BEGINS TO WEAR
OFF. THIS HAS ALLOWED OUR FIRST EVER EXTREME COLD WARNING TO
EXPIRE EARLIER THIS MORNING, ONLY BEING REPLACED BY A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. LOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL
STILL BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TEENS AND PERHAPS UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR FOR THE CHILL TONIGHT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WOULD CURB
RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY AND MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS, ONE MORE COLD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
REGIONWIDE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING
TREND STARTING ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FINALLY CLIMB JUST
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH ONLY A
LOW CHANCE (20-30%) THAT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
NIGHT ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER JUST AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE RED RIVER WITH CLEAR SKIES. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE NEEDED BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING.
REEVES
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ON SATURDAY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA
BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING, AFTER SUNRISE, BUT
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTEAD, A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ACROSS PARTS OF LAMAR COUNTY IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
NORTHEAST IS LOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT IF RAIN OCCURS IN THIS
AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE 30-32 DEGREES RIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THAT MORNING IS
SOUTH OF LAMAR COUNTY AND OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, SO IT'S
CURRENTLY MORE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT HAPPEN DUE TO A LACK
OF ANY RAIN/SHOWERS THAT FAR NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
BUT WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. A STRONGER FRONT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOME TIME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME
BRINGING COOLER AIR AND MAYBE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION.
JLDUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...NONE AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS STRATUS INTRUSION SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TAF SITES, BUT IS WORTH WATCHING. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 7 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
REEVES
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 21 37 26 50 37 / 0 0 0 5 20
WACO 22 36 30 46 37 / 0 0 0 20 40
PARIS 20 37 24 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENTON 17 37 22 50 32 / 0 0 0 5 20
MCKINNEY 18 37 23 50 33 / 0 0 0 5 20
DALLAS 22 38 27 51 37 / 0 0 0 5 20
TERRELL 20 38 26 49 35 / 0 0 0 10 30
CORSICANA 24 37 30 49 38 / 0 0 0 20 40
TEMPLE 21 36 29 45 35 / 0 0 5 30 40
MINERAL WELLS 17 37 23 51 32 / 0 0 0 5 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-135-147-148-156>162-174-175.
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