093
FXUS64 KFWD 210055
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT STARTING AT
9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO 5-10F.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE
TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW FREEZING.
- THERE ARE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAMAR COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/
A CHILLY AFTERNOON IS COMING TO A CLOSE WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE SOME AREAS WERE ABLE TO RISE INTO
THE MID 30S. AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
THOUGH A DECK OF 4-5KT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN INCOMING UPPER LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MID TEENS, MAKING
BUNDLING UP A CONTINUED NECESSITY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY FOR THESE COLD CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT
TO THIS IS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK. IF THE CLOUD DECK MOVES
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, TEMPERATURES (AND WIND CHILLS) MAY
NOT GET AS LOW. AS SUCH, THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS IN CENTRAL TEXAS
THAT DO NOT HIT OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENT MESSAGING, HAVE NOT TAKEN ANY COUNTY
OUT OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
THANKS TO WANING COLD ADVECTION AND A MODERATING AIRMASS, FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING INTO
THE MID 30S REGION-WIDE. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED DENSE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, THERE REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM
(20-50%) CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST REMAIN AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL SWING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE ONLY NOTICEABLE EFFECT BEING
SOME MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTH TEXAS. SATURDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S, WITH
THE "WARMEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CLOUD-COVERED CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES.
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY,
HOWEVER SOME CAMS DO SHOW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TOWARDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME REMAINS LOW AS BEST MOISTURE AND A
BETTER WAA SIGNAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AS SUCH, THE LATEST
FORECAST IS A DRY ONE, WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 6
AM SATURDAY.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025/
/SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ON SATURDAY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA
BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING, AFTER SUNRISE, BUT
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTEAD, A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ACROSS PARTS OF LAMAR COUNTY IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
NORTHEAST IS LOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT IF RAIN OCCURS IN THIS
AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE 30-32 DEGREES RIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THAT MORNING IS
SOUTH OF LAMAR COUNTY AND OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, SO IT'S
CURRENTLY MORE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT HAPPEN DUE TO A LACK
OF ANY RAIN/SHOWERS THAT FAR NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
BUT WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. A STRONGER FRONT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOME TIME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME
BRINGING COOLER AIR AND MAYBE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION.
JLDUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT,
WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A DECK
OF LOW VFR STRATUS WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, SPREADING OVER ACT BETWEEN
03-04Z, AND APPROACHING D10 A FEW HOURS LATER. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE TRANSITION
AT D10 MID- LATE MORNING. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AOB 7 KTS, WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE A FLOW CHANGE AT THE LARGER AIRPORTS. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL STICK AROUND TOMORROW, THOUGH VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z, BUT WILL OVERALL BE FROM THE S-SE.
PRATER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 20 37 25 50 37 / 0 0 0 5 20
WACO 20 36 30 46 37 / 0 0 0 20 40
PARIS 18 37 23 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENTON 15 36 20 50 32 / 0 0 0 5 20
MCKINNEY 17 38 22 50 33 / 0 0 0 5 20
DALLAS 21 38 28 51 37 / 0 0 0 5 20
TERRELL 19 38 25 49 35 / 0 0 0 10 30
CORSICANA 22 37 30 49 38 / 0 0 0 20 40
TEMPLE 20 35 28 45 35 / 0 0 10 30 40
MINERAL WELLS 14 37 21 51 32 / 0 0 0 5 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR TXZ122-123-129-135-141>143-147-148-156>162-174-175.
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