466
FXUS64 KFWD 210532
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10-15F.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH OF U.S. 84 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 A.M FRIDAY NIGHT.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
EVENING UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WITH A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SLOWLY PUSHING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT (5 TO 10 MPH) AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, WITH OVERCAST
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP (15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE),
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 A.M. FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DIP JUST
BELOW FREEZING (30 TO 32 DEGREES), BRINGING A LOW POTENTIAL (20
PERCENT) FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S THE DAY PRIOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY LOW QPF DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DOES NOT SUPPORT MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT
THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WOULD BE VERY PATCHY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF A GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. IF ANY ICE IS ABLE TO FORM, IT
SHOULD QUICKLY MELT SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTH WINDS BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND INTO
THE LOW 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 124 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025/
/SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
ON SATURDAY, MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS SAME AREA
BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PREVIOUS LOW CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING, AFTER SUNRISE, BUT
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES TO THE TIMING OR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INSTEAD, A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED ACROSS PARTS OF LAMAR COUNTY IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
NORTHEAST IS LOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT IF RAIN OCCURS IN THIS
AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE 30-32 DEGREES RIGHT
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THAT MORNING IS
SOUTH OF LAMAR COUNTY AND OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, SO IT'S
CURRENTLY MORE LIKELY FREEZING RAIN WILL NOT HAPPEN DUE TO A LACK
OF ANY RAIN/SHOWERS THAT FAR NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SPRING-LIKE
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
BUT WON'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. A STRONGER FRONT
LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOME TIME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME
BRINGING COOLER AIR AND MAYBE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION.
JLDUNN
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE METRO THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, KEEPING WINDS VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT
(AROUND OR UNDER 5 KNOTS). HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WIND
DIRECTION IN THE TAFS, BUT TRUE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY MORE THAN
NORMAL SHOULD THE PRESSURE CENTER BE POSITIONED OVER OR NEAR THE
TAF SITE. A DECK OF VFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER 4 KFT, SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 20 37 27 50 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
WACO 24 39 33 49 37 / 0 0 5 10 40
PARIS 20 37 24 48 30 / 0 0 0 0 20
DENTON 17 36 24 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 20
MCKINNEY 19 37 25 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 20
DALLAS 22 37 28 51 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
TERRELL 19 36 24 49 35 / 0 0 0 5 30
CORSICANA 25 38 30 50 38 / 0 0 5 5 40
TEMPLE 25 35 30 45 35 / 0 0 10 10 40
MINERAL WELLS 20 37 23 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ100-101-
115>117-122-123-129>132-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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