763
FXUS64 KFWD 210850
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 10-15F.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN SOUTH OF U.S. 84 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 6 A.M FRIDAY NIGHT.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1132 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025/
/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
EVENING UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WITH A TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SLOWLY PUSHING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT (5 TO 10 MPH) AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, WINDS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, WITH OVERCAST
PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP (15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE),
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 A.M. FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DIP JUST
BELOW FREEZING (30 TO 32 DEGREES), BRINGING A LOW POTENTIAL (20
PERCENT) FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S THE DAY PRIOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY LOW QPF DURING
THIS TIME FRAME DOES NOT SUPPORT MEASURABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT
THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME WOULD BE VERY PATCHY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF A GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. IF ANY ICE IS ABLE TO FORM, IT
SHOULD QUICKLY MELT SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTH WINDS BRINGING
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND INTO
THE LOW 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY'S RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ONE FINAL
SHOT AT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, AND ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. THERE IS A VERY BRIEF WINDOW WHERE
A STRAY SHOWER MAY COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30-32
DEGREES NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-30. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IS VERY LOW - AROUND 10%. IF FREEZING
RAIN DOES OCCUR, ANY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S
AREAWIDE. A FEW LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES) MAY
EVEN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S. A WEAK FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN A
BRIEF RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY, AS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BARNES
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1132 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025/
/06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE METRO THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, KEEPING WINDS VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY VERY LIGHT
(AROUND OR UNDER 5 KNOTS). HAVE GONE WITH THE MOST LIKELY WIND
DIRECTION IN THE TAFS, BUT TRUE WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY MORE THAN
NORMAL SHOULD THE PRESSURE CENTER BE POSITIONED OVER OR NEAR THE
TAF SITE. A DECK OF VFR STRATUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER 4 KFT, SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 37 27 50 35 62 / 0 0 0 20 5
WACO 39 33 49 38 61 / 0 5 10 30 10
PARIS 37 24 48 30 58 / 0 0 0 10 5
DENTON 36 24 50 31 62 / 0 0 0 10 0
MCKINNEY 37 25 50 33 60 / 0 0 0 10 5
DALLAS 37 28 51 37 63 / 0 0 0 20 5
TERRELL 36 24 49 34 59 / 0 0 5 20 10
CORSICANA 38 30 50 39 59 / 0 5 5 40 10
TEMPLE 35 30 45 36 60 / 0 10 10 40 10
MINERAL WELLS 37 23 52 32 66 / 0 0 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ100-
101-115>117-122-123-129>132-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page