352
FXUS64 KFWD 211805
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1205 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET PELLETS SOUTH OF U.S. 84 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7
A.M. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE RADARSCOPE HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED AS OF NOON TODAY WITH NO
MORE REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOIST,
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR 850MB WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. A PUSH OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO INCH
ABOVE THAT 32F MARK BENEATH DENSE CLOUD COVER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR. ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY
WHERE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE 30-33F RANGE.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN A ~4000 FT CLOUD LAYER AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL EXIST A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD (GENERALLY 12AM-7AM) WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LEAD
TO A GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR (~20% CHANCE). PATCHY SLEET MAY MIX IN FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS LAMPASAS,
CORYELL, MCLENNAN, BELL, FALLS, MILAM, AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES FOR
A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
ICE ABLE TO FORM QUICKLY MELTING OFF AFTER 9AM SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES START THEIR CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF I-35
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025/
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAY'S RAIN/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ONE FINAL
SHOT AT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, AND ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. THERE IS A VERY BRIEF WINDOW WHERE
A STRAY SHOWER MAY COINCIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30-32
DEGREES NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-30. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IS VERY LOW - AROUND 10%. IF FREEZING
RAIN DOES OCCUR, ANY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S
AREAWIDE. A FEW LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES) MAY
EVEN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S. A WEAK FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN A
BRIEF RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT
THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY, AS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO GENERATE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
OVC CIGS AT ~4-6KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A SURGE OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG/NORTH OF I-20. THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND KACT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-7 KTS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM
AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE RE-ESTABLISHING OUT OF THE
SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A LOW, LESS THAN 20% CHANCE, THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
EVEN SOME ICE PELLETS FALL OUT OF THIS CLOUD DECK IN CENTRAL TX,
INCLUDING KACT, AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF DUE TO THE LOW POTENTIAL. IF ICE DOES FORM,
ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED, AND IT WILL QUICKLY MELT OFF AFTER ~8-9AM SATURDAY
MORNING.
LANGFELD
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 34 25 50 35 62 / 0 0 0 20 5
WACO 34 31 47 38 61 / 0 10 10 30 10
PARIS 34 24 47 30 58 / 0 0 0 10 5
DENTON 35 20 49 31 62 / 0 0 0 10 0
MCKINNEY 34 21 49 33 60 / 0 0 0 10 5
DALLAS 35 26 50 37 63 / 0 0 0 20 5
TERRELL 34 24 48 34 59 / 0 0 0 20 10
CORSICANA 35 30 49 39 59 / 0 5 10 40 10
TEMPLE 35 29 44 36 60 / 0 10 20 40 10
MINERAL WELLS 35 21 51 32 66 / 0 0 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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