773
FXUS64 KFWD 212241
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
441 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET PELLETS SOUTH OF U.S. 84 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7
A.M. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FINALLY CLIMBED TO 32
DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS BETWEEN
4000 AND 7000 FT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLOW COOLING, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING. ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, CLOUDS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WIND WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE.
THERE IS STILL A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT (AS DETAILED IN THE
DISCUSSION BELOW) BUT IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
THE ONLY CHANGES NECESSARY FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BE MINOR HOURLY
GRID ADJUSTMENTS.
79
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE RADARSCOPE HAS COMPLETELY CLEARED AS OF NOON TODAY WITH NO
MORE REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MOIST,
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR 850MB WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. A PUSH OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO INCH
ABOVE THAT 32F MARK BENEATH DENSE CLOUD COVER.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S TONIGHT
GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR. ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY
WHERE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING IN THE 30-33F RANGE.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN A ~4000 FT CLOUD LAYER AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL EXIST A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD (GENERALLY 12AM-7AM) WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LEAD
TO A GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR (~20% CHANCE). PATCHY SLEET MAY MIX IN FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS LAMPASAS,
CORYELL, MCLENNAN, BELL, FALLS, MILAM, AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES FOR
A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING. MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY
ICE ABLE TO FORM QUICKLY MELTING OFF AFTER 9AM SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES START THEIR CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF I-35
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LANGFELD
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 141 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025/
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN WITH THE
GREATEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND EVEN FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. WE DID DECIDE TO
KEEP LOW POPS (10% CHANCE) FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST AROUND FREEZING, THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE (<10%) FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GIVEN THIS BRIEF WINDOW OF POTENTIAL AND THE CONTINUED
TREND FOR RAIN CHANCES MOVING FURTHER SOUTH, WE DECIDED TO KEEP
ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS ACROSS THIS AREA, IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. ABSOLUTE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD
INVOLVE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, BUT THE
CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ADDING TO OUR
CONFIDENCE IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS SHOULD THE WORST CASE OCCUR.
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S
AND 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING US INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
THAT WILL BRING US THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY WARMING UP INTO
THE LOW 80S ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT DRY. ENJOY THE WARMER WEATHER!
REEVES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR STRATUS BETWEEN 4000 AND 7000 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING WACO, OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT BRIEF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR EVEN SLEET COULD FALL FROM THESE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, THE CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS TAF FORECAST.
A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 8 KNOTS.
79
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 25 50 36 62 43 / 0 0 20 0 0
WACO 31 47 39 60 41 / 10 10 30 5 0
PARIS 24 47 32 58 39 / 0 0 10 5 0
DENTON 20 49 33 62 40 / 0 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 21 49 32 60 40 / 0 0 10 0 0
DALLAS 26 50 36 62 43 / 0 0 20 0 0
TERRELL 24 48 34 59 40 / 0 0 20 5 0
CORSICANA 30 49 38 59 43 / 5 10 30 10 0
TEMPLE 29 44 38 60 40 / 10 20 30 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 21 51 34 65 39 / 0 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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