834
FXUS64 KFWD 220938
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUTH OF U.S. 84 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 A.M. TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. MINIMAL, IF ANY, TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
LATTER OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVER
THE COURSE OF THIS WEEKEND. IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AS SUCH, CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT, RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. SKIES FROM YOUNG TO GRAYSON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED, WITH OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW AND
MID-20S.
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84, THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR PATCHY
DRIZZLE (20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP) FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM.
WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, ELEVATED SURFACES MAY
ACCRETE A GLAZE OF ICE. HOWEVER, ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
VERY PATCHY AND SHORT LIVED IN NATURE, AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL, IF ANY,
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES, 30 TO 50 PERCENT, LOOK TO
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 84 CORRIDOR WHERE MORE AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. HOWEVER, LOWER RAIN CHANCES (15 TO 25
PERCENT) EXTEND MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN
THIS AREA, STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR, ALLOWING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE LOW AND MID-30S HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL FLURRIES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, PRIMARILY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 20 AND U.S. 380.
BY SUNDAY, THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH NVA AND
HIGHER HEIGHTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S EAST OF I-35, AND LOWER 60S WEST
OF I-35.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
IF YOU'RE TIRED OF THE COLD, YOU'RE IN LUCK! WARMER WEATHER IS
JUST ON THE HORIZON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL MORNINGS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT A SIGNFICANT COOL-DOWN DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. WE ARE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN WITH THE COLD FRONT,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S
ARRIVAL. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN-FREE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS DECENT
CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ENCOMPASS A BROADER PORTION OF
THE CWA AS COMPARED TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STAY TUNED, AND ENJOY
THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK!
BARNES
AVIATION
/ISSUED 1205 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025/
/06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
A VFR DECK OF STRATUS WITH CEILINGS 4 TO 5 KFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AT KACT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL ALSO BE POSITIONED OVER THE DFW METRO THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WIND DIRECTIONS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND VERY
WEAK (UNDER 5 KNOTS). WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FINALLY MOVES
EAST AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 39 59 43 73 / 0 20 10 0 0
WACO 47 36 58 41 73 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS 47 33 55 39 68 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENTON 51 34 59 40 72 / 0 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 49 34 57 40 70 / 0 20 10 0 0
DALLAS 51 40 59 43 73 / 5 20 10 0 0
TERRELL 49 37 56 40 70 / 10 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 48 38 56 43 71 / 10 20 20 0 0
TEMPLE 44 36 59 40 74 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 34 63 39 78 / 0 20 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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